World prices for cashew nuts were 5.4% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier, the regional central bank BCEAO said in its September economic report. Guinea-Bissau charges raw cashew exports a 9% special tax on a fixed reference price of $1,050 (€943) per metric ton under its 2026 budget, so the levy stays at $94.50 (€84.9) a ton whatever the market price.
Analysis: The levy is calculated on a fixed reference price, so a rise in world cashew prices does not increase the tax charged per ton. Exports of about 230,000 tons by September 22 would imply approximately $21.7mn (€19.5mn) from this tax, by our calculation, assuming the stated levy applies to those volumes. Cashew represented roughly 90% of merchandise exports in 2025, according to the IMF. Higher market prices may benefit exporters, depending on their buying and shipping costs, while state receipts from the levy remain tied to export volumes. The 2027 tax treatment has not been announced.
Source: BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – septembre 2026 (published October 21, 2026), August 2026; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – Lei do Orçamento, 2026; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025
Consumer prices in Guinea-Bissau are expected to be 2.5% higher in December 2026 than a year earlier, according to the IMF's October World Economic Outlook database. Prices fell 0.5% year-on-year in August, however, after no change in July, the regional central bank BCEAO said in its September economic report, and statistics institute INE reported a 0.7% decline for September.
Analysis: The IMF's December forecast is unchanged from June even though consumer prices have been below year-earlier levels in most months of 2026. July was flat after a BCEAO revision from a 0.3% annual decline. Reaching 2.5% inflation in December from a 0.7% decline in September would require a 3.2-percentage-point rise in the annual rate in three months, by our calculation. Cereal prices were 11.6% lower in September than a year earlier. The difference between recent data and the forecast warrants caution when setting 2027 budgets and wages. INE's October price release is expected around November 9.
Source: International Monetary Fund, IMF World Economic Outlook database, October 2026 (DataMapper API, last modified 2026-10-08), December 2026 and 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – septembre 2026 (published October 21, 2026), August 2026 and July 2026; e-Global (Lisbon, Lusophone news), INE Nota de Imprensa on IHPC September 2026 (as reported by e-Global, citing Capital News), September 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, 2026; e-Global (Lisbon, Lusophone news), INE Nota de Imprensa IHPC setembro 2026 (as reported by e-Global), September 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – mars 2026 (February 2026 prices), January 2026 and February 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – avril 2026 (March 2026 prices), March 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – mai 2026 (April 2026 prices), April 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – juin 2026 (May 2026 prices), May 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – août 2026, June 2026 and July 2026
Guinea-Bissau's transitional government laid the first stone on October 16 for an 11.2-kilometer southern ring road around Bissau, from Sobrade to the navy base, plus the rehabilitation of 2.7 kilometers of the Bissau–Nhacra road, a total of 13.9 kilometers, public works minister José Carlos Esteves said, according to the newspaper O Democrata. Contractor Arezki is due to finish in 18 months, the paper reported.
Analysis: Officials have not disclosed a contract price or funding source, making it impossible to compare the scheme reliably with the 2026 investment budget of 83.2bn FCFA (€127mn). The prime minister cited international partners, but that does not confirm external financing for this project. The ring road is intended to connect with the Safim-Jugudul road, for which BOAD approved 30bn FCFA (€45.7mn) in September. Better links could improve access for freight traveling toward southern and eastern areas. Contractors and materials suppliers still need the procurement details, including who is paying and the contract value.
Source: Jornal O Democrata (Bissau), O Democrata report of the first-stone ceremony, October 16, 2026 (public works minister José Carlos Esteves), October 2026; Jornal O Democrata (Bissau), O Democrata, October 16, 2026, October 2026; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques n°645, 2 Oct 2026, item 'Le conseil d'administration de la BOAD approuve de nouveaux financements', 24 September 2026; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – Lei do Orçamento, 2026
Turnover of non-financial market services in Guinea-Bissau fell 38.7% year-on-year in July 2026 after a 51.5% drop in June, the only decline among the eight members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), where the index rose 7.6%, the regional central bank BCEAO said in its September economic report.
Analysis: Despite the steep annual decline, Guinea-Bissau's services index rose 45.7% from May to June and 7.4% in July, BCEAO data show. The series is volatile, and July 2025 itself recorded a 15.1% monthly fall, complicating comparisons. Other measures were stronger: construction activity stood 7.2 points above its long-term average, compared with 4.1 points across WAEMU, and financial services turnover grew 10.6%. The indicators therefore give a mixed picture of business conditions rather than uniform weakness. BCEAO's next report, expected in late November, may show whether the year-on-year decline narrowed further.
Source: BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – septembre 2026 (published October 21, 2026), July 2026 and June 2026
Guinea-Bissau's Council of Ministers postponed on October 22 a bill to create a warehouse receipt system, which would let stored produce serve as collateral for loans, and its regulator, giving an interministerial committee 15 days to revise the text, according to the cabinet communiqué reported by state news agency ANG.
Analysis: Warehouse receipts could allow farmers and traders to secure loans against goods stored in approved facilities, potentially benefiting cashew exporters. Guinea-Bissau shipped about 230,000 tons of cashew by September 22, making reliable storage and working capital important to the trade. Export-related bank lending fell 56.4% across WAEMU in 2025, though that regional figure does not measure Guinea-Bissau's demand for such loans. The committee has until about November 6 to review the proposal. The legislation would still require approval and implementation before warehouses could issue receipts, leaving the timing uncertain for the next cashew season.
Source: Agência de Notícias da Guiné (state news agency, Bissau), Council of Ministers communiqué of October 22, 2026, as reported by ANG, October 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Rapport annuel sur les conditions de banque dans l'UEMOA – 2025 (published September 25, 2026), 2025; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep
Chart of the week
Raw cashew nut exports, thousand metric tons, 2020–2025
154
234
183
193
167
211
202020212022202320242025
The special export tax is charged per ton, so its receipts follow these volumes. 2020 is from government data reported by news agency Lusa, and 2021 to 2025 are from IMF reports, with 2025 preliminary. The commerce ministry's provisional count for the 2026 campaign, about 230,000 tons by September 22, is not shown because it is measured by campaign rather than by calendar year.. Source: Various, Lusa dispatch republished by Agroportal, 'Governo guineense abre campanha de comercialização do caju perante reticências de operadores da fileira', 7 Apr 2021, 2020; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 24/295, sixth review under the ECF, 2021 and 2022; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, eleventh review under the ECF, 2023 and 2024; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025.
Tender of the week
Expansion of the canteen at the Agostinho Neto secondary school in Bissau
Buyer
UNICEF Guinea-Bissau (supply office, Bissau)
Scope
Invitation to bid for a works contract to expand the canteen at Liceu Agostinho Neto in Bissau, to improve food, hygiene and sanitation conditions and study and recreation spaces. Open to construction firms and consortiums legally registered in Guinea-Bissau with a valid license (alvará). A site visit is mandatory, by appointment with UNICEF's engineer, and proof of it must be attached to the bid. Clarification requests until November 6; bids by e-mail only, technical and financial proposals in separate files.
Value
Not published
Funding
UNICEF (funding source not stated in the notice)
Closes
Monday, November 9, 2026
Alama Pro members get the link to the official notice for this and every other tender.
In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Guinea-Bissau's deflation eases as fuel costs rise
10 signals with workings, from trade, prices and infrastructure to construction, regulation and agriculture
Four trackers, from inflation and bond yields to cashew volumes and farm prices, and every open tender we follow, with deadlines
Euro equivalents use the fixed parity of 655.957 FCFA per euro. Every figure comes from the official source named under it. Spotted an error? Write to info@alamareport.com; corrections run in the next issue.
