Consumer prices in Guinea-Bissau are expected to be 2.5% higher in December 2026 than a year earlier, according to the IMF's October World Economic Outlook database. Prices fell 0.5% year-on-year in August, however, after no change in July, the regional central bank BCEAO said in its September economic report, and statistics institute INE reported a 0.7% decline for September.
Analysis: The IMF's December forecast is unchanged from June even though consumer prices have been below year-earlier levels in most months of 2026. July was flat after a BCEAO revision from a 0.3% annual decline. Reaching 2.5% inflation in December from a 0.7% decline in September would require a 3.2-percentage-point rise in the annual rate in three months, by our calculation. Cereal prices were 11.6% lower in September than a year earlier. The difference between recent data and the forecast warrants caution when setting 2027 budgets and wages. INE's October price release is expected around November 9.
Source: International Monetary Fund, IMF World Economic Outlook database, October 2026 (DataMapper API, last modified 2026-10-08), December 2026 and 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – septembre 2026 (published October 21, 2026), August 2026 and July 2026; e-Global (Lisbon, Lusophone news), INE Nota de Imprensa on IHPC September 2026 (as reported by e-Global, citing Capital News), September 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, 2026; e-Global (Lisbon, Lusophone news), INE Nota de Imprensa IHPC setembro 2026 (as reported by e-Global), September 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – mars 2026 (February 2026 prices), January 2026 and February 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – avril 2026 (March 2026 prices), March 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – mai 2026 (April 2026 prices), April 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – juin 2026 (May 2026 prices), May 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – août 2026, June 2026 and July 2026