Prices of Guinea's imports rose 20.4% in the year to July 2026 while export prices increased 1.9%, national statistics institute INS said in its foreign-trade price index. Import prices of mineral products, which include fuel, rose 37.2% from a year earlier, although petroleum product prices fell 14.7% from June. The terms of trade index stood at 76.3, the agency said.
Analysis: Guinea's terms-of-trade index fell to 76.3 from 90.2 a year earlier, meaning a given quantity of exports buys substantially fewer imports than in the 2019 base year. Export prices rose just 1.9%, while export earnings jumped 50.5% in January-August, pointing to higher shipment volumes rather than prices as the main driver. Import costs per kilogram of mineral products, which include fuel, increased 37.2% year-on-year, although rice import prices fell 10.5% from June, particularly for Indian rice. INS's next foreign-trade price index, expected around November, may show whether the recent drop in fuel prices continues.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), from customs data (general trade), INS, Indice des prix du commerce extérieur, juillet 2026 (22 pages), July 2026 and July 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, January-August 2026
Guinea's government proposed cutting investment spending by 2.73tn GNF (€277mn) in its draft amended 2026 budget while raising total spending 5.8% and projected revenue 5.5%, Finance Minister Mariama Ciré Sylla told parliament on October 24. Cash revenue collected by October 15 reached 44.2tn GNF (€4.49bn), or 85% of the initial budget forecast, and the deficit target eased to 2.01% of GDP from 2.07%, the ministry said.
Analysis: The investment reduction follows a review of Simandou 2040 projects, with schemes still requiring studies deferred to a later budget, the minister said. Mining receipts are now forecast 9.5% below plan, while tax receipts are projected to rise 8%, lifting the tax-to-GDP ratio to 14.2% from 12.9%. Most additional spending would support the fuel price freeze. Contractors relying on domestically financed projects could see fewer opportunities this year, while the government seeks stronger tax collections. Parliament's committee timetable runs through November 7, and the proposed changes are not yet final.
Source: Africaguinee.com (private), Africaguinee, 'Guinée : Baisse du PIB, inflation en hausse… Les points clés du budget rectificatif 2026' (October 24-25, 2026), reporting the finance minister's presentation; official document: PLFR 2026 (not found online), FY2026 (draft amended budget); Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et du Budget (MEFB), Service Communication et Relations Publiques (text published by Guinéenews), MEFB communiqué on the PLFR 2026 presentation to the National Assembly, October 24, 2026 (published by Guinéenews on October 25), January 1-October 15, 2026 and FY2026 (draft amended budget); Africaguinee.com (private), Africaguinee, 'Guinée : Baisse du PIB, inflation en hausse… Les points clés du budget rectificatif 2026' (October 24, 2026), reporting the finance minister's presentation; official document: PLFR 2026 (not found online), FY2026 (draft amended budget); Secrétariat Général du Gouvernement, Loi de Finances Initiale 2026, L/2026/010/CNT, FY2026
Local red parboiled rice cost an average 9,112 GNF (€0.92) per kilogram in Conakry in September 2026, 45% more than the 6,271 GNF (€0.64) price of imported Thai-type rice, national statistics institute INS said in its consumer price report. The premium stood at 41% in July, while local rice was cheaper than imports only in Kankan and N'Zérékoré, INS data show.
Analysis: Local rice prices in Conakry rose 3.1% between July and September, while imported rice prices were unchanged, by our calculation. That widened the price gap after it had narrowed in July. Import costs also fell: INS reported a 10.5% decline in rice import prices in July, led by shipments from India. The widening retail premium could make competition harder for domestic rice millers and sellers as the main harvest begins. INS's October consumer price report, expected in late November, may show whether increased local supplies reduce the difference.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC), septembre 2026 (note, 18 pages), September 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC) - Juillet 2026, July 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), from customs data (general trade), INS, Indice des prix du commerce extérieur, juillet 2026 (22 pages), July 2026
Guinea's government puts the cost of holding fuel at 12,000 GNF (€1.22) a liter at 5.49tn GNF (€557mn) for 2026, Finance Minister Mariama Ciré Sylla told parliament on October 24, presenting the draft amended budget. The figure, nearly 10% of projected tax revenue, combines 4.58tn GNF (€464mn) in tax revenue forgone and a 913bn GNF (€93mn) provision for the price stabilization mechanism, the ministry said.
Analysis: The planned subsidy is slightly larger than the value of fuel imported in August, 5.14tn GNF (€521mn), and equals about two-thirds of the initial 2026 budget deficit of 8.32tn GNF (€845mn), by our calculation. Gasoline and diesel pump prices remained at 12,000 GNF throughout the country's regions in September. That shields motorists and transport firms from immediate international price changes but places costs on public finances. The minister called for tighter targeting and oversight. Parliament is scheduled to examine the revised budget through November 7.
Source: Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et du Budget (MEFB), Service Communication et Relations Publiques (text published by Guinéenews), MEFB communiqué on the PLFR 2026 presentation to the National Assembly, October 24, 2026 (published by Guinéenews on October 25), FY2026 (draft amended budget); Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC), septembre 2026 (note, 18 pages), September 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, August 2026; Secrétariat Général du Gouvernement, Loi de Finances Initiale 2026, L/2026/010/CNT, FY2026
Guinea's petroleum product imports cost 5.14tn GNF (€521mn) in August 2026, 3.3% less than in July, and made up 41.1% of the total import bill, the national statistics institute INS said. Some 85% came from the Netherlands, while pump prices for gasoline and diesel stayed at 12,000 GNF (€1.22) a liter in all regions through September, INS price data show.
Analysis: Fuel accounted for the largest share of Guinea's import bill, at more than nine times the value of construction machinery, the next biggest category. The 591,629 tons imported imply an average customs value of about 8,680 GNF (€0.88) per kilogram, by our calculation. With pump prices unchanged nationwide in September, changes in import costs fall on distributors or the budget rather than immediately on motorists. The draft revised budget puts this year's price-support cost at 5.49tn GNF (€557mn). INS's September trade report, expected in late November, may show whether lower July fuel prices reduced the import bill.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, August 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC) - Juillet 2026, July 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC), septembre 2026 (note, 18 pages), September 2026; Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et du Budget (MEFB), Service Communication et Relations Publiques (text published by Guinéenews), MEFB communiqué on the PLFR 2026 presentation to the National Assembly, October 24, 2026 (published by Guinéenews on October 25), FY2026 (draft amended budget); Institut National de la Statistique (INS), from customs data (general trade), INS, Indice des prix du commerce extérieur, juillet 2026 (22 pages), July 2026
Chart of the week
Bauxite exports, million metric tons per month, August 2025–August 2026
Customs-declared volumes from the statistics institute INS. The Ministry of Mines' totals, reported by Reuters, are higher, at 114.8mn tons in the first half of 2026 against 78.9mn tons in these monthly figures, so the series shows declared exports rather than shipments.. Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2025, August 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Septembre 2025, September 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Octobre 2025, October 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Novembre 2025, November 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Décembre 2025, December 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Janvier 2026, January 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Février 2026, February 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Mars 2026, March 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Avril 2026, April 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Mai 2026, May 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Juin 2026, June 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Juillet 2026, July 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, August 2026.
Tender of the week
Rehabilitation, densification and extension of the Labé electricity grid
Buyer
Electricité de Guinée (EDG), PAAEG 2 electricity access project unit
Scope
Design, supply and installation: about 106 km of 30 kV trunk lines, 139 km of medium-voltage and 1,247 km of low-voltage lines with street lighting, 171 transformer substations, 65,796 metered connections (43,680 new), rehabilitation of the Pounthioun 30 kV substation and a new Hamda transit substation; 24 months; international two-envelope tender, no prequalification; bid security $1mn or 8,764mn GNF.
Value
USD 59mn (World Bank notice estimate field)
Funding
World Bank (IDA credits 7869-GN, 7870-GN and 7882-GN, project P511453)
Closes
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
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In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Guinea's export economy: gold, bauxite and the Simandou project
10 signals with workings, from eight areas: trade, macro and prices, energy, mining, agriculture, construction, projects and tourism
Five trackers and every open tender we follow, with deadlines
