The week in one number: 17.95tn GNF (€1.82bn): Guinea's goods trade surplus in the first eight months of 2026, up from 12.58tn GNF (€1.27bn) a year earlier, according to the national statistics institute INS.
Guinea's merchandise trade surplus grew to 17.95tn GNF (€1.82bn) in January–August 2026 from 12.58tn GNF (€1.27bn) a year earlier, national statistics institute INS said in its August trade report. Exports rose 50.5% to 125.0tn GNF (€12.6bn), while imports increased 51.9% to 107.1tn GNF (€10.8bn), the agency said.
Analysis: Gold, bauxite and iron ore accounted for 96.5% of exports in August, INS figures show, making the trade surplus highly dependent on mineral prices and volumes. Imports grew slightly faster than exports, with fuel and construction equipment the largest items in August. The central bank BCRG also recorded a stronger current account, which moved to a $671.1mn surplus in the second quarter from a $434.4mn deficit a year earlier. That could improve foreign-currency availability for banks and importers. INS's September trade figures, expected in late November, should show whether the gains persist.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, January-August 2026 and August 2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Communiqué de presse, 22ème réunion ordinaire du Comité de Politique Monétaire, 18 septembre 2026, Q2 2026
Guinea's annual consumer inflation rose to 6.4% in July 2026 from 6.1% in June, national statistics institute INS said. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, which account for 39% of the consumer price index, cost 13.5% more than a year earlier. Housing, water, gas, electricity and other fuel prices, by contrast, fell 1.1%, the agency said.
Analysis: Inflation has climbed from 5.8% in March, central bank BCRG figures show. Food accounted for the entire 0.7% month-on-month increase in July, with other categories broadly unchanged, pointing to food supply pressures rather than stronger demand across the economy. The BCRG has cited bottlenecks at Conakry port and the conflict in the Middle East. Food importers and retailers typically face higher replacement costs, while employers may encounter wage demands. The BCRG expects fourth-quarter inflation of 6.8%. INS's August figures, expected in November, should indicate whether food inflation is still accelerating.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC) - Juillet 2026, July 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, INHPC - Juillet 2026, July 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC) - Juin 2026, June 2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Communiqué de presse, 22ème réunion ordinaire du Comité de Politique Monétaire, 18 septembre 2026, March 2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Communiqué, 22ème CPM, 18 septembre 2026, 2026 (projection)
Guinea's central bank BCRG held its policy interest rate at 9.5% and banks' reserve requirement at 11.5% on September 18, its monetary policy committee said. The average commercial bank lending rate fell to 13.2% in the second quarter from 16.8% in the first, while broad money increased 37.7% year-on-year, the bank said.
Analysis: Average lending rates dropped 3.6 percentage points in one quarter, far more than the policy rate cut of 25 basis points on March 30. That narrowed the lending-rate premium over the policy rate to 3.7 points in the second quarter from 7.1 in the first, when the policy rate was 9.75%, by our calculation. With net foreign assets up 65.4%, abundant liquidity appears to be lowering borrowing costs rather than policy easing. Firms refinancing working capital could benefit, although banks may face narrower lending margins. Against July inflation of 6.4%, the policy rate is about 3.1 points higher. The committee generally meets quarterly, pointing to another decision around December.
Source: Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Communiqué de presse, 22ème réunion ordinaire du Comité de Politique Monétaire, 18 septembre 2026, Decision of 18 Sept 2026 (unchanged) and Q2 2026 and as reported 18 Sept 2026 (likely end-June 2026); Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Communiqué, 22ème CPM, 18 septembre 2026, Decision of 18 Sept 2026 and as reported 18 Sept 2026 (likely end-June 2026) and 2026 (projection); Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC) - Juillet 2026, July 2026
AFG Bank Guinée signed two agreements worth a combined €60mn with Proparco, the French Development Agency AFD's private-sector arm, on October 6, Guinéenews reported. They include a €35mn senior loan for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and €25mn in trade-finance guarantees. The bank aims to double its SME loan portfolio to €120mn from €60mn by 2027, the report said.
Analysis: The €25mn guarantee facility represents about 2% of Guinea's August imports of 12.5tn GNF (€1.26bn), by our calculation. It should improve access to trade finance without transforming the market. Doubling the SME portfolio would mean roughly €60mn in additional lending, beyond the €35mn Proparco loan, so deposits or other lenders would likely fund the balance. Smaller importers could benefit if the facility supports more letters of credit. Neither party has disclosed when funds will be available, while the portfolio target runs through 2027.
Source: Guinéenews (private), Guinéenews, 7-8 Oct 2026, Signed 6 Oct 2026 and by 2027 (target); Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, August 2026
Local red parboiled rice cost an average 8,839 GNF (€0.89) per kilogram in Conakry in July 2026, 41% above the 6,270 GNF (€0.63) price for imported Thai-type rice, national statistics agency INS said in its consumer price report. Across Guinea, food prices were 13.5% higher than a year earlier, the agency said.
Analysis: The premium narrowed from 44% in June as local rice prices fell 3.4% month-on-month, compared with a 1.5% decline for imports, by our calculation. Local rice was cheaper than imported varieties only in the inland producing centers of Kankan and N'Zérékoré, suggesting that transport adds to prices in Conakry. The gap could constrain demand for domestic rice among consumers in the capital, while importers retain a cost advantage. Harvesting usually begins in October. INS's August and September reports, expected from November, should show whether the price difference narrows.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC) - Juillet 2026, July 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC) - Juin 2026, June 2026
Chart of the week
Merchandise exports, bn GNF per month, August 2025–August 2026
Customs-based values from the statistics institute INS. Bauxite is valued at central bank average prices, so monthly totals swing widely, and the December 2025 peak rests on an unusually high bauxite valuation. Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2025, August 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Septembre 2025, September 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Octobre 2025, October 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Novembre 2025, November 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Décembre 2025, December 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Janvier 2026, January 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Février 2026, February 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Mars 2026, March 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Avril 2026, April 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Mai 2026, May 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Juin 2026, June 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Juillet 2026, July 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, August 2026.
Tender of the week
Rehabilitation, densification and extension of the Labé electricity grid
Buyer
Electricité de Guinée (EDG), PAAEG 2 electricity access project unit
Scope
Design, supply and installation: about 106 km of 30 kV trunk lines, 139 km of medium-voltage and 1,247 km of low-voltage lines with street lighting, 171 transformer substations, 65,796 metered connections (43,680 new), rehabilitation of the Pounthioun 30 kV substation and a new Hamda transit substation; 24 months; international two-envelope tender, no prequalification; bid security $1mn or 8,764mn GNF.
Value
USD 59mn (World Bank notice estimate field)
Funding
World Bank (IDA credits 7869-GN, 7870-GN and 7882-GN, project P511453)
Closes
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Alama Pro members get the link to the official notice for this and every other tender.
In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Guinea's central bank cut rates while inflation rose
All this week's stories with their workings, across nine of our ten areas, from the trade surplus, inflation and the IMF program to rice prices, Simandou's iron ore, bauxite, refined gold export rules and Orange Guinée's customers
Five trackers and every open tender we follow, with deadlines
