The week in one number: 284bn FCFA (€433mn): the value of the lithium concentrate Mali exported to China in 2025, now its largest export to China by value, according to the export promotion agency APEX-Mali, as reported by the news agency APA.
Mali exported 338,773 metric tons of lithium concentrate to China in 2025, worth 284.3bn FCFA (€433mn), export promotion agency APEX-Mali said in an October 9 interview reported by APA. Mali's total exports to China increased 235% from 2024, the agency said.
Analysis: The export value implies about 839,000 FCFA (€1,280) per ton of concentrate, by our calculation. China's embassy in Bamako estimated growth in Malian exports to China at 170% in March, against APEX-Mali's 235%, a discrepancy APA attributes to different coverage or comparison periods. Lithium from Ganfeng's Goulamina mine now leads those exports, ahead of sesame and cotton, making receipts and trade-finance flows more sensitive to lithium prices. INSTAT's full-year 2025 trade figures, for which no publication date has been announced, should provide an official comparison.
Source: APA News, APEX-Mali deputy director general interview, 9 Oct 2026 (as reported by APA, 12 Oct 2026), 2025; APA News, Embassy of China in Bamako, March 2026 (as reported by APA, 12 Oct 2026), 2025
Senegal's exports to Mali reached 211.2bn FCFA (€322mn) in August 2026, up from 78.5bn FCFA (€120mn) in July and 64.2bn FCFA (€98mn) a year earlier, Senegalese statistics agency ANSD said in its monthly trade report. Mali accounted for 29.7% of Senegal's goods exports in August, while imports from Mali were just 167mn FCFA (€255,000), ANSD said.
Analysis: August represented nearly a third of Senegal's 658.1bn FCFA (€1.0bn) in exports to Mali during the first eight months, when total shipments grew 13.9% year-on-year. That points to a small number of large consignments behind August's jump rather than consistent monthly growth. ANSD does not disclose product-level trade by individual partner, so the goods responsible remain unknown. Freight forwarders and truckers on the Dakar–Bamako route may have seen higher volumes, although export values also reflect prices. The September trade report, expected around November 6, should indicate whether the increase continued.
Source: Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (Senegal), ANSD, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques du commerce extérieur, août 2026, August 2026; Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (Senegal), ANSD Senegal, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques du commerce extérieur, août 2026, July 2026 and August 2025 and January–August 2026 and August 2026
Mali's consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to September 2026, up from 3.3% in August, but were unchanged month-on-month, statistics institute INSTAT said on October 10. Food and non-alcoholic drinks cost 5.8% more than a year earlier and diesel prices rose 29.9%. Core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, was 1.5%, the agency said.
Analysis: Annual inflation has increased every month since March, when it was 0.7%, by our calculation from INSTAT's index. September's rate was the highest in at least 12 months. Core inflation of 1.5% indicates that fuel and fresh food are driving much of the rise, rather than a broader increase in prices. Cereal prices were 5.0% below a year earlier, partly offsetting other increases. Transport companies and food distributors are among the first affected. INSTAT's October inflation figures, expected around November 10, should show whether price pressures continue.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INSTAT Mali), INSTAT Mali, IHPC note for September 2026 (base 2023), September 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INSTAT Mali), INSTAT Mali, IHPC note, August 2026 (base 2023), August 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INSTAT Mali), INSTAT Mali, IHPC note, September 2026 (base 2023), dated 10/10/2026, September 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INSTAT Mali), INSTAT Mali, IHPC note, March 2026 (base 2023), March 2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INSTAT Mali), INSTAT Mali, IHPC note for September 2026, September 2026
Mali and the IMF are preparing talks on an Extended Credit Facility, a multi-year concessional lending program, following a Fund mission to Bamako on October 5–9, the finance ministry said, according to APA. Forecasts for economic growth in 2026 range from the IMF's 5.5% estimate in March to the government's 6.3%, with the African Development Bank projecting 6.0%.
Analysis: The agencies also differ on 2025: the IMF estimates growth of 4.9%, against 5.6% from the government and African Development Bank. A lending arrangement would follow an IMF staff-monitored program that provided no financing. For banks and investors buying government bonds, a new program could bring budget funding beyond the regional debt market, where Mali has raised approximately 1,240bn FCFA (€1.89bn) gross this year. No start date has been announced for formal negotiations, and the size, duration and terms of any loan remain undecided.
Source: APA News, Independence Day address by the transition president, 22 Sept 2026 (as reported by APA), 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/165, Second Review under the SMP, 2026 and 2025; APA News, AfDB Mali country report 2026, 15 Sept 2026 (as reported by APA, 22 Sept 2026), 2026; African Development Bank, AfDB, Perspectives économiques au Mali (country page), 2025; APA News, 'Le Mali lève 33 milliards FCFA sur le marché régional', 14 Oct 2026 (based on UMOA-Titres results), January 1–October 14, 2026
Mali held fertilizer stocks covering 22% of national requirements in late August, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's GIEWS monitoring service said on August 27. Urea prices climbed 19% between February and March, while NPK and DAP fertilizer prices rose 16% and 8%, respectively. Cotton producer CMDT said 12,123 hectares around Fana had shifted to other crops because inputs arrived late or in insufficient quantities, APA reported on September 8.
Analysis: The shortage threatens sharply higher seed cotton production targets: 598,500 metric tons set by the government and more than 650,000 tons by CMDT's board for 2026/27, compared with about 433,700 tons last season. Cotton yields depend heavily on fertilizer applied in July and August, so supply delays put both goals at risk. Cotton ginners, fertilizer importers and banks financing the 164.39bn FCFA (€251mn) government farm campaign face exposure. CMDT's initial buying figures, once purchases begin in the fourth quarter, should provide the first indication of how production compares with targets.
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), FAO GIEWS Country Brief: Mali, reference date 27 August 2026, August 2026 and March 2026; APA News, CMDT Fana directorate, Agriculture minister's tour 5–6 Sept 2026 (as reported by APA, 8 Sept 2026), 2026/27 campaign; APA News, 'Mali : le déficit d'engrais pèse sur la campagne agricole', 8 Sept 2026 (government campaign plan), 2026/27 campaign; Agence Ecofin, CMDT 106th board session, 26 Feb 2026 (as reported by Agence Ecofin), 2026/27 campaign; APA News, Government campaign plan (as reported by APA, 8 Sept 2026), 2026/27 campaign
Chart of the week
Senegal's goods exports to Mali, million FCFA a month, March–August 2026
55,969
74,034
40,804
70,763
78,539
211,160
MarAprMayJunJulAug
Includes fuel re-exports and does not separate Malian transit cargo. March and April are from ANSD's June bulletin, May to August from its August bulletin. Source: Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (Senegal), ANSD Senegal, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques du commerce extérieur, juin 2026, March 2026 and April 2026; Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (Senegal), ANSD Senegal, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques du commerce extérieur, août 2026, May 2026 and June 2026 and July 2026; Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (Senegal), ANSD, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques du commerce extérieur, août 2026, August 2026.
Tender of the week
IT equipment, mission vehicles and solar equipment for governance bodies (three lots)
Buyer
Governance structures support project (PASG), public finance reform unit CARFIP, Ministry of Economy and Finance
Scope
Supply of IT equipment, mission vehicles and solar equipment in three lots, with delivery within six months; international open tender, single envelope, under AfDB rules.
Value
Not published
Funding
African Development Fund grant No. 5900155016708 (AfDB Group)
Closes
Thursday, November 12, 2026
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In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: What Mali's fuel deliveries, financing and new state carrier mean for business
All this week's stories with their workings, across nine areas, from lithium exports to China, the Dakar corridor and IMF loan talks to inflation, fertilizer, mining permits, building materials, cattle exports and the Dakar port fee waiver
Five trackers and every open tender we follow, with deadlines and recent awards
Euro equivalents use the fixed parity of 655.957 FCFA per euro. Every figure comes from the official source named under it. Spotted an error? Write to info@alamareport.com; corrections run in the next issue.
