The week in one number: 230,000 tons: the approximate volume of raw cashew nuts Guinea-Bissau had exported in the 2026 campaign by September 22, roughly 30,000 tons more than initially forecast, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said that day, according to a weekly brief from France's Treasury.
Guinea-Bissau exported about 230,000 metric tons of raw cashew nuts in the 2026 campaign by September 22, around 30,000 tons above the initial forecast, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said, according to a brief from France's Treasury. India and Vietnam were the main buyers. Fewer than 5,000 tons remained in stock in Bissau, with none left in the regions, the ministry said.
Analysis: Exports of about 230,000 tons were 9% above the IMF's 211,000-ton figure for 2025, by our calculation, and exceeded 2026 forecasts ranging from the ministry's initial 200,000 tons to the 223,324 tons in the budget framework. The special export tax, charged per ton at 9% of a fixed $1,050 reference price, means higher volumes should raise Treasury receipts. The campaign is due to end in October as dredging begins at Bissau port. The ministry has not announced when it will publish a final export total.
Source: Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest (hors Nigéria-Ghana) n°644, 25 Sep 2026, citing the Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep and 22 September 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, Appendix I Letter of Intent, 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – macroeconomic framework ('Principal hipóteses' table), 2026; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – Lei do Orçamento, 2026
Guinea-Bissau plans a November financing round table for its cashew industry, covering processing, storage and transport, after the prime minister appointed an organizing committee on September 9, Bissau newspaper O Democrata reported. Under the 2026 budget, raw cashew exports face a 9% special tax on a reference price of $1,050 per metric ton, plus a 1% fee.
Analysis: Cashew accounted for about 90% of Guinea-Bissau's goods exports in 2025, worth 151.3bn FCFA (€231mn), IMF figures show. At the reference price, the export tax and fee total about $105 per ton, equivalent to roughly $24mn on the 230,000 tons shipped by September 22, by our calculation. Processors, warehouse operators and their lenders are the businesses most directly affected by the proposed funding drive. The organizing committee has not announced a November date or the amount of financing it aims to raise.
Source: Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – Lei do Orçamento, 2026; Lusa (Portuguese news agency), republished by Forbes África Lusófona and aman-alliance.org, Government price-setting announcement, 10 Mar 2026 (reported by Forbes África Lusófona / Lusa), 2026 campaign; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025
Dredging at Bissau port is due to begin in October 2026, bringing the cashew export campaign to a close that month, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said on September 22, according to France's Treasury. At the project's launch on January 26, financier West African Development Bank (BOAD) had said work would be completed by summer 2026.
Analysis: BOAD expects dredging to reduce ships' average stay in Bissau to two days from five, cutting waiting costs for shipping lines and importers once the work is finished. But the planned October start falls after BOAD's original summer completion date. The completion date matters for the 2027 cashew campaign: this year's first nuts arrived in Bissau on April 15. Neither BOAD nor the ministry has issued a new completion date, leaving shipping companies uncertain about when faster port operations will begin. That uncertainty could complicate vessel bookings for exporters preparing next season's shipments.
Source: Banque Ouest Africaine de Développement, BOAD press release, Bissau, 26 Jan 2026, launch of Bissau port dredging works, After completion (planned summer 2026); International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, Appendix I Letter of Intent, 2026 campaign; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep
Guinea-Bissau paid an average weighted yield of 8.10% on three-year Treasury bonds at its October 19 auction, up from 7.22% on September 8, regional debt agency UMOA-Titres said. Bids covered the 7.5bn FCFA (€11.4mn) offered 1.14 times, down from 2.16 times a week earlier and the lowest coverage in five auctions since August 11.
Analysis: The yield has climbed 88 basis points since September 8 and is about one point above the 7.12% July average for government bonds auctioned across the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). It remains below the second-quarter range of 8.07% to 8.42%, however, having risen from a September low. The number of bidders fell to four on October 19 from 13 the previous week, which typically limits the Treasury's ability to reject expensive bids. Its next auction, on November 2, targets another 7.5bn FCFA (€11.4mn).
Source: UMOA-Titres (regional agency, Dakar), UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication GW ES 19.10.2026, 19 October 2026; UMOA-Titres (regional agency, Dakar), UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication GW ES 08.09.2026, 8 September 2026; UMOA-Titres (regional agency, Dakar), UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication GW ES 12.10.2026, 12 October 2026; UMOA-Titres (regional agency, Dakar), UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication GW ES 11.08.2026, 11 August 2026; BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – août 2026, July 2026; Ministério das Finanças / DGDP, Ministério das Finanças/DGDP, Relatório Trimestral da Dívida Pública, II Trimestre 2026 (August 2026), 4 May 2026 and 29 June 2026; UMOA-Titres, Calendrier d'émissions oct.-nov.-déc. 2026, 2 November 2026; UMOA-Titres (regional agency, Dakar), UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication GW ES 28.09.2026, 28 September 2026
Consumer prices in Guinea-Bissau fell 0.7% year-on-year in September 2026, the lowest rate among the eight members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), whose average was 1.3%, statistics institute INE said on October 9, according to news site e-Global. Food prices declined 3.4%, including an 11.6% fall for cereals such as rice.
Analysis: Prices were also lower year-on-year in June and July, by 1.0% and 0.3% respectively, regional central bank BCEAO data show. That leaves inflation well below the IMF's projected 2026 average of 2.5%. The 11.6% drop in cereal prices supports the IMF's June assessment that cheaper imported rice is reducing inflation. Lower food bills help households, but rice importers holding higher-cost stock risk narrower margins. INE's October data, expected around November 9, should indicate whether the declines persist.
Source: e-Global (Lisbon, Lusophone news), INE Nota de Imprensa on IHPC September 2026 (as reported by e-Global, citing Capital News), September 2026; e-Global (Lisbon, Lusophone news), INE Nota de Imprensa IHPC setembro 2026 (as reported by e-Global), September 2026; e-Global (Lisbon, Lusophone news), INE Nota de Imprensa IHPC setembro 2026 (as reported by e-Global, citing Capital News), September 2026; BCEAO, Note de conjoncture économique des pays de l'UEMOA – août 2026, June 2026 and July 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, 2026
Chart of the week
Raw cashew nut exports, thousand metric tons, 2020–2025
154
234
183
193
167
211
202020212022202320242025
2020 is from government data reported by news agency Lusa, and 2021 to 2025 are from IMF reports, with 2025 preliminary. The commerce ministry's provisional count for the 2026 campaign, about 230,000 tons by September 22, is not shown because it is measured by campaign rather than by calendar year. Source: Various, Lusa dispatch republished by Agroportal, 'Governo guineense abre campanha de comercialização do caju perante reticências de operadores da fileira', 7 Apr 2021, 2020; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 24/295, sixth review under the ECF, 2021 and 2022; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, eleventh review under the ECF, 2023 and 2024; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025.
Tender of the week
External audit of the Northern Connectivity project and CERP accounts, 2026–2028
Buyer
Northern Connectivity project management unit (UGP-CN)
Scope
Call for expressions of interest from audit firms to audit the financial statements of the World Bank-financed Enhancing Connectivity in Northern Guinea-Bissau project and the CERP for 2026, 2027 and 2028, including expenditure statements and the designated account; firms must belong to an accountancy body recognized by IFAC or FIDEF; least-cost selection.
Value
Not published
Funding
World Bank (IDA credit and grant), project P176948
Closes
Thursday, November 5, 2026
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In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Guinea-Bissau's cashew exports climb while minimum farm price stays at 410 FCFA
All this week's stories with their workings, from cashew exports, the processing round table and port dredging to Treasury bond yields, falling consumer prices, public debt, free instant transfers and the final IMF review
Four trackers, from inflation and bond yields to cashew volumes and farm prices, and every open tender we follow, with deadlines
Euro equivalents use the fixed parity of 655.957 FCFA per euro. Every figure comes from the official source named under it. Spotted an error? Write to info@alamareport.com; corrections run in the next issue.
