Guinea-Bissau exported about 230,000 metric tons of raw cashew nuts in the 2026 campaign by September 22, around 30,000 tons above the initial forecast, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said, according to a brief from France's Treasury. India and Vietnam were the main buyers. Fewer than 5,000 tons remained in stock in Bissau, with none left in the regions, the ministry said.
Analysis: Exports of about 230,000 tons were 9% above the IMF's 211,000-ton figure for 2025, by our calculation, and exceeded 2026 forecasts ranging from the ministry's initial 200,000 tons to the 223,324 tons in the budget framework. The special export tax, charged per ton at 9% of a fixed $1,050 reference price, means higher volumes should raise Treasury receipts. The campaign is due to end in October as dredging begins at Bissau port. The ministry has not announced when it will publish a final export total.
Source: Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest (hors Nigéria-Ghana) n°644, 25 Sep 2026, citing the Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep and 22 September 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, Appendix I Letter of Intent, 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – macroeconomic framework ('Principal hipóteses' table), 2026; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – Lei do Orçamento, 2026