China's imports from Guinea rose to $12bn in 2025 from $2.20bn in 2018, and Guinea accounted for $4.36bn of the $6.22bn increase in China's purchases from Africa last year, Ecofin Agency calculated from Chinese customs data on October 30. Chinese imports of Guinean bauxite and other aluminum ores rose to about 149.5mn metric tons from 38.2mn in 2018, UN Comtrade data show, Ecofin said.
Analysis: Guinea's trade is increasingly concentrated in one commodity and one market. China bought 94.6% of its bauxite exports in August, according to INS, while Guinean shipments accounted for most of China's additional imports from Africa in 2025. That exposes mining revenue to changes in Chinese alumina demand. Planned export restrictions and three alumina refineries under construction could alter the balance, although their effects are not yet clear. Chinese customs records measure arrivals, not departures, and therefore do not align exactly with Guinea's reported 182.8mn tons of 2025 exports. September trade figures are expected later in November.
Source: Agence Ecofin (private), Ecofin Agency, 'Without DR Congo and Guinea, Africa's exports to China would have shrunk since 2018' (October 30, 2026), Ecofin calculations on Chinese customs and UN Comtrade data, 2025; Guinéenews (private), Presentation by Ismaël Diakité at OGCE round table, reported by Guinéenews, 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, August 2026
The Guinean franc weakened to 8,822.66 per US dollar on October 30 from 8,795.37 at the end of September, its fifth consecutive monthly decline, according to reference rates of the central bank BCRG. The franc was 1.8% weaker than a year earlier, while consumer prices rose 5.9% in the year to September, the statistics agency INS said.
Analysis: The franc's 0.31% October decline was the steepest monthly fall since January, but it remained only 1.8% weaker than a year earlier. With domestic consumer inflation at 5.9% in September, the currency may have appreciated in inflation-adjusted terms against the dollar, depending on US price trends. That could affect the competitiveness of Guinean goods, even though importers' direct currency costs have risen modestly. The central bank kept its policy rate at 9.5% in September and has not announced the next meeting. Its final meeting last year took place on December 12.
Source: Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30 octobre 2026, Liste N°0206/2026, October 2026, fixing of 30/10/2026 and October 30, 2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/09/2026, Liste N°0185/2026, September 2026, fixing of 30/09/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/10/2025, Liste N°0204/2025, October 2025, fixing of 31/10/2025; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/12/2025, Liste N°0244/2025, December 2025, fixing of 30/12/2025; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 29/05/2026, Liste N°0098/2026, May 2026, fixing of 29/05/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 29/01/2026, Liste N°0019/2026, January 2026, fixing of 29/01/2026; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère du Plan, INS, Indice national harmonisé des prix à la consommation (INHPC), septembre 2026 (note, 18 pages), September 2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Communiqué de presse, 22ème réunion ordinaire du Comité de Politique Monétaire, 18 septembre 2026, Decision of 18 Sept 2026 (unchanged); Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Communiqué de presse, 20ème réunion ordinaire du Comité de Politique Monétaire, 12 décembre 2025, Decision of 12 December 2025 (20th meeting, unchanged); Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 27/02/2026, Liste N°0040/2026, February 2026, fixing of 27/02/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/03/2026, Liste N°0060/2026, March 2026, fixing of 31/03/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/04/2026, Liste N°0081/2026, April 2026, fixing of 30/04/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/06/2026, Liste N°0120/2026, June 2026, fixing of 30/06/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/07/2026, Liste N°0143/2026, July 2026, fixing of 31/07/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/08/2026, Liste N°0163/2026, August 2026, fixing of 31/08/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG homepage, 'Cours des devises' block shown under the heading 'Fixing du 02/11/2026', November 2, 2026
Nimba Gold Refinery, inaugurated by President Mamadi Doumbouya in Conakry on November 1, can refine 733 metric tons of gold a year, the company's Moussa Magassouba said, according to Guinéenews. That is more than ten times the 69.56 tons Guinea exported in 2025, according to the central bank BCRG.
Analysis: At half its stated capacity, the refinery could handle about five times Guinea's 2025 gold export volume, by our calculation. Filling it would require significantly higher domestic output or imported feedstock, neither of which officials have quantified. The claimed $4.5bn in annual revenue at half capacity also needs clarification: at Guinea's average 2025 export value of approximately $101mn per ton, that sum corresponds to about 45 tons, not 366. Licensed buying houses, responsible for 49.6 tons of exports last year, must now refine their gold locally. The refinery's ownership, financing and construction cost were not reported.
Source: Guinéenews (private), Guinéenews (Alhassane Bah), report of the inauguration speech by Moussa Magassouba for Nimba Gold Refinery, November 1, 2026, At inauguration, November 1, 2026 and Annual, at 50% of capacity (estimate); Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée, BCRG, Rapport annuel 2025 (PDF file dated October 20, 2026), 2025; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Allocution du Gouverneur devant le CNT, mars 2026, 2025; Secrétariat Général du Gouvernement, Journal Officiel de la République de Guinée n°2026-19 (October 19, 2026), Arrêtés A/2026/831, 832 and 833/MMG/SGG of October 5, 2026, From October 5, 2026
Hilton has signed an agreement with Guinean developers Falibra Group and SCF SA to open a 196-room DoubleTree by Hilton in 2029 in Kaloum, Conakry's administrative and business district, the companies said in a statement on October 30. The hotel, Hilton's first in Guinea, will be built on the site of the Grand Hôtel de l'Indépendance under a public-private partnership, the statement said.
Analysis: The hotel would add an international brand to Conakry's business accommodation market as airport traffic expands: passenger numbers rose approximately 22% year on year to 545,330 in the first half of 2026, by our calculation from figures reported in September. Its location near government offices, the port and corporate headquarters points toward business travelers and official delegations rather than leisure tourism. But the developers disclosed no investment value, financing arrangements or construction start date. Nor have they published the terms of the proposed public-private partnership. Those omissions make the announced 2029 opening target difficult for lenders and contractors to assess.
Source: Guinéenews (private), Falibra Group, SCF SA and Hilton press release of October 30, 2026, published as 'Publireportage' by Guinéenews (and by Africaguinee), Planned opening 2029 and Planned opening; Various, Burkina24, 'Guinée : L’aéroport de Conakry explose les compteurs avec 545 330 passagers en six mois' (September 2, 2026), citing Africa24, H1 2026 and H1 2025
Guinea's economy grew an estimated 7.1% in 2025, the central bank BCRG's first deputy governor Mohamed Lamine Conté told parliament on October 24, matching the government's draft amended budget, Guinéenews reported. The statistics institute INS puts provisional 2025 growth at 8.4% on its website, while the World Bank estimated 7.3% in its October economic update. For 2026, projections range from the IMF's 7.2% to the World Bank's 8.8%, with the government at 8.6%.
Analysis: The 1.3-percentage-point spread represents roughly 5.4tn GNF (€545mn) in output on the statistics agency's provisional GDP estimate, by our calculation. Different statistical base years may account for some of the variation: INS recently moved to a 2018 base for quarterly accounts, although the institutions have not explained whether their annual estimates use comparable series. The discrepancy matters because GDP influences reported debt and fiscal-deficit ratios, as well as assessments of economic performance. The IMF's forthcoming staff report on Guinea's financing arrangement may clarify which growth figure is being used for program projections.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), INS homepage, key indicators panel (site updated October 29, 2026), 2025; Guinéenews (private), Guinéenews, 'LFR 2026 : la Banque centrale alerte sur les risques inflationnistes...' (October 26, 2026), governor's remarks to the National Assembly on October 24, 2025; World Bank, World Bank press release, 9 Oct 2026, Guinea Economic Update 2026, 2025; Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et du Budget (MEFB), Service Communication et Relations Publiques (text published by Guinéenews), MEFB communiqué on the PLFR 2026 presentation to the National Assembly, October 24, 2026 (published by Guinéenews on October 25), FY2026 (draft amended budget); World Bank, World Bank press release on Guinea Economic Update 2026, 2026 (projection); International Monetary Fund, IMF Guinea country page, 'At a Glance', 2026 (projection)
Chart of the week
Guinean francs per US dollar, BCRG month-end reference rate, October 2025–October 2026
Last fixing of each month, from the central bank BCRG. A higher value means a weaker franc. The franc lost 1.8% against the dollar over the 12 months to October 30, by our calculation, while consumer prices rose 5.9% in the year to September, the statistics institute INS said.. Source: Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/10/2025, Liste N°0204/2025, October 2025, fixing of 31/10/2025; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 28/11/2025, Liste N°0223/2025, November 2025, fixing of 28/11/2025; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/12/2025, Liste N°0244/2025, December 2025, fixing of 30/12/2025; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 29/01/2026, Liste N°0019/2026, January 2026, fixing of 29/01/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 27/02/2026, Liste N°0040/2026, February 2026, fixing of 27/02/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/03/2026, Liste N°0060/2026, March 2026, fixing of 31/03/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/04/2026, Liste N°0081/2026, April 2026, fixing of 30/04/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 29/05/2026, Liste N°0098/2026, May 2026, fixing of 29/05/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/06/2026, Liste N°0120/2026, June 2026, fixing of 30/06/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/07/2026, Liste N°0143/2026, July 2026, fixing of 31/07/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 31/08/2026, Liste N°0163/2026, August 2026, fixing of 31/08/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30/09/2026, Liste N°0185/2026, September 2026, fixing of 30/09/2026; Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée (BCRG), BCRG, Cours de référence des principales devises contre GNF au 30 octobre 2026, Liste N°0206/2026, October 2026, fixing of 30/10/2026.
Tender of the week
Firms to set up local committees managing forest, pasture and fishery resources and food crises
Buyer
Ministry of Agriculture, P2-P2RS Sahel food resilience project unit
Scope
Call for expressions of interest from firms to create and run joint local committees for forest, pasture and fishery resources and for crisis prevention in the project's communes; selection on consultant qualifications (SQC); indicative duration four months.
Value
Not published
Funding
African Development Fund grant No. 21001550422017 (project P-Z1-C00-092)
Closes
Thursday, November 12, 2026
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Deep dive: What a steadier franc and improved risk rating mean for Guinea's lenders
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