Liberia's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $53.7mn in August 2026 from $93.0mn in July, the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) said in its August economic review. Export earnings rose 9.4% from July to $241.0mn, while petroleum product imports fell 58% to $34.4mn. The deficit was still 11 times the $4.8mn gap of August 2025, however, as imports rose 42% over the year to $294.8mn.
Analysis: Fuel imports fluctuate by month, making August's lower fuel bill a potentially misleading signal. Across July and August, petroleum imports totaled 47,908 tons, 37% more than a year earlier, by our calculation. The wider shift in import demand came from machinery and transport equipment, whose value rose 49% to $124.1mn, or 42% of the month's import bill, an increase the CBL linked to higher mining activity. Gold accounted for about two-thirds of export receipts, at $162.8mn. September trade data should indicate whether capital equipment imports remain elevated.
Source: Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), August 2026 and August 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 7), July 2026 and July 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, CBL market buying and selling rates, November 2, 2026; European Central Bank, ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates: US dollar, November 2, 2026; Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), CBL Monetary Policy Committee Communique No. 28 (meeting of October 6, 2026), January 2027
Consumer prices in Liberia rose 4.6% in the year to August 2026, up from 4.1% in July and the first acceleration since April, the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) said in its August economic review. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation reached 6.1%, compared with 2.4% a year earlier. Core inflation, which excludes food and transport, rose to 3.5% from 2.9%.
Analysis: Prices accelerated even as the Liberian dollar strengthened 3.3% against the US currency during August, suggesting the exchange rate was not the principal driver. Annual food inflation rose to 6.1% from 2.4% a year earlier, increasing pressure on household budgets. The central bank also cited higher restaurant, hotel and education prices in underlying inflation. August's headline figure already matched the bank's fourth-quarter forecast of 4.6%. September's report should clarify whether inflation has eased toward the 4.3% level cited by the finance minister ahead of the next policy meeting in January.
Source: Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), August 2026 and August 2025 and End-August 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, September 2025 (Vol. 11 No. 9), August 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 7), June 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, April 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 4), April 2026; Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), CBL Monetary Policy Committee Communique No. 28 (meeting of October 6, 2026), Q4 2026 and January 2027; AfDB (via Liberian Observer), Liberian Observer via AllAfrica, 'AfDB President Pledges Continued Support for Liberia' (citing Minister Ngafuan), September 2026
Liberia's gross international reserves rose 42% over a year to an estimated $971.95mn at end-August 2026 from $684.24mn, the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) said in its August economic review. The reserves covered 3.2 months of imports, up from 3.0 months at end-July but the same as in August 2025.
Analysis: Reserves increased by approximately $288mn over the year, but import cover barely improved as the monthly import bill also grew roughly 42%. Cover remains only slightly above the central bank's three-month ECOWAS benchmark, limiting the apparent buffer if foreign-currency demand increases. The central bank attributed reserve growth mainly to foreign liquid assets. Remittance receipts, up 47% year on year to $90.3mn, also added to available dollars, although they do not translate automatically into official reserves. The monetary policy committee next meets on January 20, 2027.
Source: Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), End-August 2026 and End-August 2025 and August 2026 and August 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 7), July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, CBL market buying and selling rates, November 2, 2026; European Central Bank, ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates: US dollar, November 2, 2026; Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), CBL Monetary Policy Committee Communique No. 28 (meeting of October 6, 2026), Q3 2026 and January 2027
Liberia earned $37.4mn from rubber exports from May to July 2026, 25% more than a year earlier, by our calculation from the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) monthly reviews, with July alone up 61% at $18.45mn. Output, however, fell 12.8% from June to an estimated 5,754 metric tons in July, the bank said, after second-quarter production dropped to 14,765 tons from 28,372 tons a year earlier.
Analysis: Higher export receipts despite reduced production could reflect better prices, sales from inventories or a shift toward processed products. The central bank's figures do not separate these possibilities, and monthly earnings varied widely, from $4.9mn in May to $18.5mn in July. The three-month comparison is therefore more informative than July alone. The trend matters for growers and processors following a mid-2026 change in rules governing exports of unprocessed rubber. Updated trade figures should show whether the earnings increase continued, although no detailed price series was provided.
Source: Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026 and June 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2025, July 2025 and June 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy and Planning Department, CBL Financial and Economic Bulletin, Vol. 27 No. 2, April-June 2026 (second quarter 2026), Q2 2026 and Q2 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy and Planning Department, CBL Financial and Economic Bulletin, second quarter 2025 and third quarter 2025, Q2 2025; FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, 'Rubber Farmer Takes Agriculture Minister To Task Over Executive Order 166', September 28, 2026 (official document: Executive Orders 151 and 166, Executive Mansion), August 2025 to June 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, May 2025 and May 2026
The Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC) aims to raise installed generation capacity to about 472 megawatts by 2029 from 146MW today, relying on private investors and public-private partnerships, Managing Director Mohammed Sherif said at the LIMEC 2026 mining and energy conference on October 28, the Liberian Observer reported. The presentation also cited current capacity of about 148MW, and Sherif gave no costs or amount of private financing sought.
Analysis: Reaching the target would require adding about 109 MW each year, roughly ten times the average expansion recorded between 2014 and 2024 in World Bank figures cited by the Observer, by our calculation. Installed capacity also exceeds electricity actually generated: LEC's average output was approximately 78 MW in the second quarter. The utility has not published project budgets, financing arrangements, tender dates or the underlying presentation, making delivery prospects difficult to judge. Developers and industrial users therefore lack the details needed to plan investments around the proposed increase. Third-quarter generation figures are expected around mid-December.
Source: Liberian Observer (Monrovia), Liberian Observer, 'LEC Turns to Private Investors to Address Chronic Power Crisis', by David A. Yates, October 30, 2026 (LEC Managing Director Mohammed Sherif at LIMEC 2026, October 28), 2029 (target) and October 2026 and 2014 and 2024; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy and Planning Department, CBL Financial and Economic Bulletin, Vol. 27 No. 2, April-June 2026 (second quarter 2026), Q2 2026
Chart of the week
Liberian dollar exchange rate, August 2025 to August 2026 (LRD per US dollar, end of month)
A lower number means a stronger Liberian dollar. February 2026 is shown at 183.51, as in the central bank's March and April 2026 reviews; its February 2026 review printed 185.35.. Source: Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, September 2025 (Vol. 11 No. 9), August 2025 and September 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, December 2025 (Vol. 11 No. 12), October 2025 and November 2025 and December 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, February 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 2), January 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, March 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 3), February 2026 and March 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, April 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 4), April 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, May 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 5), May 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, June 2026, June 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), End-August 2026.
In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Liberian dollar's 10% rise: who gains and who loses
10 stories with workings, from trade, prices, reserves, public revenue, mining, energy, agriculture and banking
Five key figures tracked monthly (inflation, policy rate, exchange rate, gold and iron ore export earnings)
