China's imports from Guinea rose to $12bn in 2025 from $2.20bn in 2018, and Guinea accounted for $4.36bn of the $6.22bn increase in China's purchases from Africa last year, Ecofin Agency calculated from Chinese customs data on October 30. Chinese imports of Guinean bauxite and other aluminum ores rose to about 149.5mn metric tons from 38.2mn in 2018, UN Comtrade data show, Ecofin said.
Analysis: Guinea's trade is increasingly concentrated in one commodity and one market. China bought 94.6% of its bauxite exports in August, according to INS, while Guinean shipments accounted for most of China's additional imports from Africa in 2025. That exposes mining revenue to changes in Chinese alumina demand. Planned export restrictions and three alumina refineries under construction could alter the balance, although their effects are not yet clear. Chinese customs records measure arrivals, not departures, and therefore do not align exactly with Guinea's reported 182.8mn tons of 2025 exports. September trade figures are expected later in November.
Source: Agence Ecofin (private), Ecofin Agency, 'Without DR Congo and Guinea, Africa's exports to China would have shrunk since 2018' (October 30, 2026), Ecofin calculations on Chinese customs and UN Comtrade data, 2025; Guinéenews (private), Presentation by Ismaël Diakité at OGCE round table, reported by Guinéenews, 2025; Institut National de la Statistique (INS), data from Direction Générale des Douanes (SYDONIA), INS, Note sur les statistiques du commerce extérieur - Août 2026, August 2026