Guinea's economy grew an estimated 7.1% in 2025, the central bank BCRG's first deputy governor Mohamed Lamine Conté told parliament on October 24, matching the government's draft amended budget, Guinéenews reported. The statistics institute INS puts provisional 2025 growth at 8.4% on its website, while the World Bank estimated 7.3% in its October economic update. For 2026, projections range from the IMF's 7.2% to the World Bank's 8.8%, with the government at 8.6%.
Analysis: The 1.3-percentage-point spread represents roughly 5.4tn GNF (€545mn) in output on the statistics agency's provisional GDP estimate, by our calculation. Different statistical base years may account for some of the variation: INS recently moved to a 2018 base for quarterly accounts, although the institutions have not explained whether their annual estimates use comparable series. The discrepancy matters because GDP influences reported debt and fiscal-deficit ratios, as well as assessments of economic performance. The IMF's forthcoming staff report on Guinea's financing arrangement may clarify which growth figure is being used for program projections.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), INS homepage, key indicators panel (site updated October 29, 2026), 2025; Guinéenews (private), Guinéenews, 'LFR 2026 : la Banque centrale alerte sur les risques inflationnistes...' (October 26, 2026), governor's remarks to the National Assembly on October 24, 2025; World Bank, World Bank press release, 9 Oct 2026, Guinea Economic Update 2026, 2025; Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et du Budget (MEFB), Service Communication et Relations Publiques (text published by Guinéenews), MEFB communiqué on the PLFR 2026 presentation to the National Assembly, October 24, 2026 (published by Guinéenews on October 25), FY2026 (draft amended budget); World Bank, World Bank press release on Guinea Economic Update 2026, 2026 (projection); International Monetary Fund, IMF Guinea country page, 'At a Glance', 2026 (projection)