Senegal's budget deficit could reach 10% if spending rises without adjustments, against the 7.6% of GDP written into the draft amended 2026 budget, Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told lawmakers before the planned plenary vote, Le Soleil reported on October 25. Diba said oil had topped $110 a barrel, against the $64 assumed in the initial budget. State revenue would fall 340.3bn FCFA (€519mn) short of plan, he said.
Analysis: The revised budget targets a deficit of 7.6% of GDP, against 5.4% initially. Diba's 10% figure describes what could happen without the proposed measures, not the government's forecast. Brent traded near $116 on October 27, far above the original $64 budget assumption, increasing pressure on fuel and electricity subsidies. Tax and customs receipts exceeded targets by 81.2bn FCFA (€124mn) through September, offsetting about a quarter of the projected revenue shortfall. If lawmakers reject the revised budget and the government does not enact it by other means, the original budget would remain in force, APS reported. At the October 27 plenary, the bill was sent back to committee at the government's request.
Source: Ministry of Finance and Budget, Le Soleil, 'LFR 2026 : Cheikh Diba explique les contraintes financières de l'État', 2026 and 2026 (initial budget) and October 2026 and January–September 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Le Soleil, 'LFR 2026 : Cheikh Diba explique les contraintes financières de l'État' (statement to lawmakers), 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances rectificative (PLFR) 2026, exposé des motifs, 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Government press conference on the amended 2026 budget (LFR), October 25, 2026, as reported by Le Soleil, 2026 (amended vs initial); Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances rectificative (PLFR) 2026 (via APA, 21 Sep 2026), 2026; National Assembly, Plenary session of the National Assembly, 27 Oct 2026, as reported by SenePlus and allAfrica, 27 Oct 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Trading Economics, Brent crude oil page (market data; no official document), October 27, 2026
Senegal's Treasury offered 50bn FCFA (€76mn) of bills and bonds on October 23, against 90bn FCFA (€137mn) planned in its quarterly calendar. It retained 55bn FCFA (€84mn) of bids. The one-year bill yielded 8.06% and the five-year bond yielded 8.24%, the regional debt agency UMOA-Titres said in its auction report.
Analysis: The 8.06% one-year yield was the highest in four Senegalese auctions in our records this year, against 7.87% on October 9 and 6.81% in April. It is 5.06 percentage points above the BCEAO's 3% policy rate. The Treasury accepted only 474mn FCFA (€0.7mn) of 9.0bn FCFA (€14mn) bid for three-year bonds, indicating limited appetite for the bids at those terms. Auctions scheduled for November 6 and 20 may show whether the smaller offering was temporary. For banks, government securities yielding more than 8% offer an alternative to corporate lending.
Source: UMOA-Titres, UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu de l'émission simultanée de BAT et OAT du Sénégal du 23/10/2026 (signed by UMOA-Titres and the DGFD), Auction of 23 Oct 2026; UMOA-Titres, UMOA-Titres, Calendrier des émissions par adjudication des Etats membres de l'UMOA d'octobre, novembre et décembre 2026, Auction of 23 Oct 2026; UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication BAT/OAT Etat du Sénégal, 09/10/2026, Auction of 9 Oct 2026; UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication BAT/OAT Etat du Sénégal, 25/09/2026, Auction of 25 Sep 2026; UMOA-Titres, Emission simultanée de bons et d'obligations du Trésor du Sénégal du 24/04/2026, results page, Auction of 24 Apr 2026; UMOA-Titres, UMOA-Titres, results of the simultaneous issue of Senegal Treasury bills and bonds, 9 Oct 2026, Auction of 9 Oct 2026; BCEAO, Communiqué de presse de la réunion ordinaire du Comité de Politique Monétaire de la BCEAO tenue le 9 septembre 2026, Decision of 9 Sep 2026
Senegal had sold 13,879 metric tons of local white rice by October 13 out of 41,729 tons available, Emedia reported from an October 22 interministerial council, which ordered payment of the 50 FCFA (€0.076) per kilogram subsidy owed to rice mills and planned a mechanism linking import volumes to purchases of local rice.
Analysis: Available stock minus sales leaves 27,850 tons unsold, by our calculation. That is more than twice the 13,000 tons the agriculture minister said remained unsold in the Senegal River valley on October 8, suggesting the figures cover different areas or dates. Importers could be affected by the proposed rule linking import volumes to purchases of local rice, alongside the 8 FCFA (€0.012) per kilogram import levy announced in September. The government plans to propose measures to improve local rice competitiveness before year-end. Importers may need to account for domestic purchases when preparing their 2027 plans.
Source: Prime Minister's Office (Primature), Interministerial council on the 2026-2027 agricultural marketing campaign (October 22, 2026), as reported by Emedia (October 22, 2026), As of October 13, 2026 and 2026/27 campaign; Prime Minister's Office (Primature), Prime Minister's Office, communique 'Campagne de commercialisation des produits agricoles 2026-2027' (interministerial council of October 22, 2026), posted October 25, 2026, 2026; Ministry of Agriculture (MASAE), Agriculture Minister Cheikhou Oumar Ba statement (via APS, 8 Oct 2026), October 2026; Ministry of Agriculture (MASAE), Agriculture minister Cheikhou Oumar Ba, press briefing on the 2026 farm campaign, Diamniadio, 8 Oct 2026, as reported by Senego, October 2026; Ministry of Industry and Commerce and ARM, Commerce minister Serigne Guèye Diop at the joint Commerce–Agriculture workshop, as reported by APS, Announced 25 Sep 2026; Ministry of Industry and Commerce and ARM, Meeting at the Ministry of Industry and Commerce on local rice, 8 July 2026 (via RTS, 8 Jul 2026), July 2026
Senegal's 2026/27 groundnut marketing campaign will open at the end of November, with export terms to be published at the opening, the Prime Minister's office said after an October 22 interministerial council. The state kept the producer price at 305 FCFA (€0.46) a kilogram, while state oilseed processor SONACOS still needs 25bn FCFA (€38mn) of its 100bn FCFA (€152mn) buying budget, the state news agency APS reported.
Analysis: The unchanged 305 FCFA producer price gives exporters an earlier basis for planning than last season, when the price was announced on December 10, 2025. SONACOS has arranged nearly 75% of the funding for its plan to buy 250,000 metric tons. Whether its banking pool supplies the remaining 25bn FCFA (€38mn) could affect purchases when the campaign opens. Officials will report on preparations before collection starts in late November. Exporters still lack the season's export rules, which the government says it will publish at the opening, limiting their ability to price forward sales.
Source: Prime Minister's Office (Primature), Prime Minister's Office, communique 'Campagne de commercialisation des produits agricoles 2026-2027' (interministerial council of October 22, 2026), posted October 25, 2026, 2026/27 campaign; SONACOS, SONACOS statement to APS (October 22, 2026), as reported by APS, 2026/27 campaign; Prime Minister's Office (Primature), Interministerial council on the 2026-2027 agricultural marketing campaign (October 22, 2026), as reported by Emedia (October 22, 2026), 2025/26 campaign; Ministry of Agriculture (MASAE), Interministerial order fixing the groundnut floor price for the 2025-2026 campaign (via PressAfrik, 10 Dec 2025), 2025/26 campaign; Prime Minister's Office (Primature), Réunion interministérielle sur la campagne de production agricole 2026/2027, 30 June 2026, point 33, 2026/27 campaign; Ministry of Agriculture (MASAE), Agriculture Minister Cheikhou Oumar Ba on marketing preparation (via APS, 8 Oct 2026), 2026/27 campaign; SONACOS, SONACOS management at the Ziguinchor plant, 11 Sep 2026 (via Le Soleil, 11 Sep 2026), 2026/27 campaign; Prime Minister's Office (Primature), APS dispatch 'Campagne arachidière : l'État maintient le prix du kilogramme à 305 FCFA' (official text: relevé of the interministerial council of October 22, 2026, which does not state the price), 2026/27 campaign
Senegal's government owes companies 1,956bn FCFA (€2.98bn) in payment arrears, Finance Minister Cheikh Diba said on October 25, 2026, while the draft amended 2026 budget sets aside 300bn FCFA (€457mn) to clear them and the draft 2027 budget plans 480bn FCFA (€732mn), according to the two finance bills.
Analysis: The proposed 2026 and 2027 payments add up to 780bn FCFA (€1.19bn), equivalent to 39.9% of the reported arrears, leaving 1,176bn FCFA (€1.79bn) on that basis. But the Prime Minister dated the 1,956bn FCFA stock to March 2025. It may therefore exclude arrears accumulated since then and payments of 474bn FCFA (€723mn) made during 2025. Both allocations still require parliamentary approval: the revised 2026 budget was sent back to committee at the October 27 plenary, with the 2027 budget expected in late November. Suppliers and contractors cannot yet assume when their outstanding invoices will be settled.
Source: Ministry of Finance and Budget, Government press conference on the amended 2026 budget (LFR), October 25, 2026, as reported by Le Soleil, Stock (stated October 25, 2026); Prime Minister's Office (Primature), Prime Minister's general policy statement to the National Assembly, September 8, 2026, as reported by Capmad, End-March 2025; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances rectificative (PLFR) 2026, article 40, 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances 2027 (PLF 2027), explanatory statement, published on vie-publique.sn, 2027 (draft budget); Ministry of Finance and Budget, 2025 budget execution report, as reported by Capmad (Sept 9, 2026), 2025; National Assembly, Communiqué of the PASTEF-Les Patriotes parliamentary group, October 20, 2026, as reported by Le Soleil, October 2026; National Assembly, National Assembly notice, as reported by RTS (public broadcaster), 27 Oct 2026; National Assembly, Plenary session of the National Assembly, 27 Oct 2026, as reported by SenePlus and allAfrica, 27 Oct 2026
Chart of the week
Senegal's one-year Treasury bill yield at auction, %
6.8
8.0
7.9
8.1
Auction of 24 Apr 2026Auction of 25 Sep 2026Auction of 9 Oct 2026Auction of 23 Oct 2026
Weighted average yields at the four 2026 auctions in our records: April 24, September 25, October 9 and October 23. Auctions between April and September are not shown. Source: UMOA-Titres.. Source: UMOA-Titres, Emission simultanée de bons et d'obligations du Trésor du Sénégal du 24/04/2026, results page, Auction of 24 Apr 2026; UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication BAT/OAT Etat du Sénégal, 25/09/2026, Auction of 25 Sep 2026; UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu d'adjudication BAT/OAT Etat du Sénégal, 09/10/2026, Auction of 9 Oct 2026; UMOA-Titres, UMOA-Titres, Compte rendu de l'émission simultanée de BAT et OAT du Sénégal du 23/10/2026 (signed by UMOA-Titres and the DGFD), Auction of 23 Oct 2026.
Tender of the week
Construction and rehabilitation of schools in Dakar, Thiès and Kaolack (6 lots)
Buyer
ADM
Scope
Construction and rehabilitation of lycées and middle schools (CEM) in six lots, each awarded separately; open tender (appel d’offres ouvert) by the Municipal Development Agency (ADM) under a school infrastructure program financed by an AFD loan.
Value
Not published
Funding
AFD loan
Closes
Monday, December 7, 2026
Alama Pro members get the link to the official notice for this and every other tender.
In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Senegal's ports: Bargny 2027, Ndayane 2028 and Mali trade
15 signals with workings, from the budget and bond markets, farming, energy, ports, telecoms and tourism
Seven key figures, from Sangomar oil exports to inflation, and every open tender in our records
Euro equivalents use the fixed parity of 655.957 FCFA per euro. Every figure comes from the official source named under it. Spotted an error? Write to info@alamareport.com; corrections run in the next issue.
