Senegal's budget deficit could reach 10% if spending rises without adjustments, against the 7.6% of GDP written into the draft amended 2026 budget, Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told lawmakers before the planned plenary vote, Le Soleil reported on October 25. Diba said oil had topped $110 a barrel, against the $64 assumed in the initial budget. State revenue would fall 340.3bn FCFA (€519mn) short of plan, he said.
Analysis: The revised budget targets a deficit of 7.6% of GDP, against 5.4% initially. Diba's 10% figure describes what could happen without the proposed measures, not the government's forecast. Brent traded near $116 on October 27, far above the original $64 budget assumption, increasing pressure on fuel and electricity subsidies. Tax and customs receipts exceeded targets by 81.2bn FCFA (€124mn) through September, offsetting about a quarter of the projected revenue shortfall. If lawmakers reject the revised budget and the government does not enact it by other means, the original budget would remain in force, APS reported. At the October 27 plenary, the bill was sent back to committee at the government's request.
Source: Ministry of Finance and Budget, Le Soleil, 'LFR 2026 : Cheikh Diba explique les contraintes financières de l'État', 2026 and 2026 (initial budget) and October 2026 and January–September 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Le Soleil, 'LFR 2026 : Cheikh Diba explique les contraintes financières de l'État' (statement to lawmakers), 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances rectificative (PLFR) 2026, exposé des motifs, 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Government press conference on the amended 2026 budget (LFR), October 25, 2026, as reported by Le Soleil, 2026 (amended vs initial); Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances rectificative (PLFR) 2026 (via APA, 21 Sep 2026), 2026; National Assembly, Plenary session of the National Assembly, 27 Oct 2026, as reported by SenePlus and allAfrica, 27 Oct 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Trading Economics, Brent crude oil page (market data; no official document), October 27, 2026