US imports of goods from Liberia fell 28.9% to $35.6mn in the first nine months of 2026 from $50.1mn a year earlier, according to US Census Bureau data updated on November 4. US exports to Liberia rose 76% to $149mn over the same period. A single month accounted for most of that rise, with $78.6mn shipped in April, by our calculation.
Analysis: Excluding April's unusually large shipment, US exports to Liberia fell 10.5%, by our calculation. The headline rise therefore rests on one month, and the data do not identify the cargo. On the import side, the United States buys little from Liberia. Nine months of US purchases equal about 15% of what Liberia exported in August alone, by our calculation from central bank data. Switzerland, by comparison, took $133.9mn of Liberian goods in July, the central bank said. Census data for October, usually released in early December, will show whether September's $7.4mn, the highest month this year, marks a recovery.
Source: US Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), US Census Bureau via FRED, series IMP7650, last updated November 4, 2026, September 2026; US Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), US Census Bureau via FRED, series IMP7650, September 2025; US Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), US Census Bureau via FRED, series EXP7650, last updated November 4, 2026, April 2026; US Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), US Census Bureau via FRED, series EXP7650, September 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), August 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 7), July 2026
Liberia's international reserves covered about 1.6 months of imports at the end of 2025, the World Bank said in its Liberia Economic Update on November 3. The Central Bank of Liberia's own measure was twice as high, at 3.2 months in both August 2025 and August 2026, when gross reserves reached $971.95mn. Its monetary policy committee cited 3.3 months of prospective imports in October.
Analysis: Timing alone cannot explain the difference, because the central bank's cover stood at 3.2 months both before and after the World Bank's year-end reading. Different definitions likely explain the gap, such as counting only usable reserves or including imports of services. Neither source explains its method. The difference matters because the central bank itself uses a three-month benchmark. One measure puts Liberia above it, the other well below. Banks and importers that rely on dollar liquidity are left with two very different readings. The IMF staff report on the fourth program review, usually published within two months of the September 28 board meeting, could show which measure the program uses.
Source: World Bank Group, World Bank press release, November 2026, End-2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), End-August 2026 and End-August 2025; Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), CBL Monetary Policy Committee Communique No. 28 (meeting of October 6, 2026), Q3 2026
The share of Liberians living in extreme poverty rose to an estimated 36.1% in 2025 from 34.6% in 2024, even though the economy grew 5.1%, the World Bank said in its seventh Liberia Economic Update, launched on November 3, as reported by FrontPage Africa and the Liberian Observer. Mining output expanded 17% while agriculture grew 2.6%, the Bank said.
Analysis: These estimates are not directly comparable with the Bank's previous update, which put extreme poverty at 26.4% in 2024 and projected 20.9% by 2027. That edition measured poverty at $2.15 a day. The Bank has since raised its international poverty line to $3.00 a day, which likely explains why its new 2024 estimate is 8.2 points higher. On either measure, mining-led growth has not reached most households. Farming, where many poor Liberians work, slowed. The Bank expects poverty to ease to 33.2% in 2026 if farming recovers, FrontPage Africa reported. The 2027 budget's agriculture allocation has not been published.
Source: FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, 'World Bank Says Liberia's Economy Is Growing, But Extreme Poverty Is Rising', November 4, 2026 (citing World Bank Liberia Economic Update, 7th edition), 2025; FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, November 4, 2026, 2024 and latest (2025 report); FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, 'Liberia: Record Billions at the Top, Rising Hunger at the Bottom', November 9, 2026, 2026; World Bank Group, World Bank press release, Liberia Economic Update 7th edition, November 2026, 2025; World Bank Group, World Bank press release, November 2026, 2025; World Bank Group (Open Knowledge Repository), World Bank, Liberia Economic Update No. 6, September 2025, 2024 and 2027; FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, November 6, 2026 (budget article), recent budgets; World Bank Group (Open Knowledge Repository), World Bank Liberia Economic Update No. 6 (September 2025), LEU No. 6 (September 2025)
Liberia's public capital spending fell to 5.7% of GDP in 2025 from 8.5% in 2024, the World Bank said in its Liberia Economic Update, according to a FrontPage Africa commentary on November 6 and to Senator Amara Konneh, quoted by the newspaper on November 9. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP from 2.5% over the same period, the Bank said.
Analysis: The 2.8-point cut in capital spending is seven times the 0.4-point narrowing of the deficit, by our calculation. That suggests other spending rose, or revenue fell, as a share of GDP. The reversal is recent. A year earlier, the Bank put 2024 capital spending at 8.2% of GDP, up from 6.7% in 2023, and the new edition revises 2024 to 8.5%. For contractors and equipment suppliers, the drop means fewer public works payments. It is also consistent with the Bank's warning that growth is not creating enough jobs. The 2027 budget's investment line, not yet published, will show whether the cut continues.
Source: FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, 'Reflection on the World Bank Liberia Economic Update 2026', November 6, 2026 (commentary citing the report), 2025; AllAfrica, Liberian Observer via AllAfrica, 'Economic Growth Amid Rising Poverty', November 3, 2026, 2024; World Bank Group (Open Knowledge Repository), World Bank, Liberia Economic Update No. 6, September 2025, 2024; World Bank Group, World Bank press release, November 2026, 2025
ArcelorMittal expects to ship about 16mn metric tons of iron ore from Liberia in 2026, down from its earlier forecast of 18mn tons, the steelmaker said in its third-quarter results on November 5. A heavy monsoon season kept third-quarter shipments largely unchanged. The company still expects the Liberian operation to reach nameplate capacity in the fourth quarter and to recover the shortfall in 2027.
Analysis: Even after the cut, shipments would be about 60% above the roughly 10mn tons shipped in 2025, by our calculation. The expansion is lifting shipments, although more slowly than planned. The delay matters beyond the company, because ArcelorMittal was Liberia's largest taxpayer this year, with $270mn paid by mid-September, according to tax agency figures reported by FrontPage Africa. Central bank data show about 19.8mn tons produced in the first eight months, already above the new full-year shipment target. That suggests stocks are building, or that the two sources measure output differently. ArcelorMittal has not yet set a date for its full-year results.
Source: ArcelorMittal / US SEC EDGAR, ArcelorMittal 3Q 2026 earnings release (Form 6-K), November 5, 2026, 2026 and 4Q 2026 and 3Q 2026; ArcelorMittal / US SEC EDGAR, ArcelorMittal 2Q 2026 earnings release (Form 6-K), 2026; FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, 'Liberia Bets Its Future on Iron, Gold and Power' (October 20, 2026), 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy and Planning Department, CBL Financial and Economic Bulletin, Vol. 27 No. 2, April-June 2026 (second quarter 2026), Q1 2026 and Q2 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), August 2026; FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, September 17, 2026 (LRA top-10 taxpayers), 2026 year to September 16
Chart of the week
Liberia iron ore production, metric tons per month, Central Bank of Liberia, May–August 2026
2,130,000
2,855,000
3,090,000
2,610,000
MayJunJulAug
Monthly iron ore output in metric tons, from the production tables of the Central Bank of Liberia's Monthly Economic Review. August's 2.61mn tons compares with 3.09mn in July, the highest of the four months. The series measures production, not shipments: the central bank's August review put iron ore exports at 1.26mn tons.. Source: Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, May 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 7), June 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), August 2026.
In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Liberia's $1.54bn budget rests on a one-off revenue year
12 stories with workings, from US trade, reserves, poverty, public debt and the 2027 budget to the Liberian dollar, iron ore, Monrovia's port, ID cards and state companies
Five key figures, from inflation and the policy rate to the Liberian dollar and gold and iron ore export earnings
