ArcelorMittal expects to ship about 16mn metric tons of iron ore from Liberia in 2026, down from its earlier forecast of 18mn tons, the steelmaker said in its third-quarter results on November 5. A heavy monsoon season kept third-quarter shipments largely unchanged. The company still expects the Liberian operation to reach nameplate capacity in the fourth quarter and to recover the shortfall in 2027.
Analysis: Even after the cut, shipments would be about 60% above the roughly 10mn tons shipped in 2025, by our calculation. The expansion is lifting shipments, although more slowly than planned. The delay matters beyond the company, because ArcelorMittal was Liberia's largest taxpayer this year, with $270mn paid by mid-September, according to tax agency figures reported by FrontPage Africa. Central bank data show about 19.8mn tons produced in the first eight months, already above the new full-year shipment target. That suggests stocks are building, or that the two sources measure output differently. ArcelorMittal has not yet set a date for its full-year results.
Source: ArcelorMittal / US SEC EDGAR, ArcelorMittal 3Q 2026 earnings release (Form 6-K), November 5, 2026, 2026 and 4Q 2026 and 3Q 2026; ArcelorMittal / US SEC EDGAR, ArcelorMittal 2Q 2026 earnings release (Form 6-K), 2026; FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, 'Liberia Bets Its Future on Iron, Gold and Power' (October 20, 2026), 2025; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy and Planning Department, CBL Financial and Economic Bulletin, Vol. 27 No. 2, April-June 2026 (second quarter 2026), Q1 2026 and Q2 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, July 2026; Central Bank of Liberia, Research, Policy & Planning Dept, CBL Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (cover dated 8 August 2026; posted November 2, 2026), August 2026; FrontPage Africa (Monrovia), FrontPage Africa, September 17, 2026 (LRA top-10 taxpayers), 2026 year to September 16