The week in one number: 722.9bn naira (€478mn): Nigeria's customs revenue in October, up from 697.8bn naira (€462mn) in September (Nigeria Customs Service).
Nigeria's customs service collected 722.9bn naira (€478mn) in October, up from 697.8bn naira (€462mn) in September, spokesman Abdullahi Maiwada said at a security briefing in Abuja on November 5. Exports processed through the service's Lilypond export command in Lagos were worth $752.8mn in the third quarter, 22.14% more than a year earlier. Manufactured goods accounted for $402.5mn and farm produce for $311mn, he said, as reported by Nairametrics.
Analysis: The annual export increase masks a second consecutive quarterly fall. Lilypond's third-quarter total was about 5% below the second quarter's $792.6mn, which had itself fallen from $925.8mn in the first, by our calculation from the command's earlier briefings reported by Nairametrics. Revenue grew more slowly than exports over the year. September's collection was about 6% above the 658.6bn naira (€436mn) reported for September 2025. The service gave no July or August figures, so progress toward its 11.074tn naira (€7.33bn) target for 2026 cannot be measured. The statistics bureau NBS has not published a date for third-quarter trade data.
Source: Nigeria Customs Service, Nigeria Customs Service briefing (spokesman Abdullahi Maiwada, Abuja, November 5, 2026), as reported by Nairametrics, October 2026; Nigeria Customs Service, Nigeria Customs Service briefing, November 5, 2026, as reported by Leadership, September 2026; Nigeria Customs Service, Nigeria Customs Service briefing, November 5, 2026, as reported by Nairametrics, Q3 2026; Ships & Ports Communication Company, Ships & Ports report on Customs September 2025 revenue (October 15, 2025), September 2025; Nigeria Customs Service, Nairametrics report, November 5, 2026 (citing its August 2026 report), 2026; Nigeria Customs Service, Nairametrics, Lilypond customs export value falls 14.4% to $792.6 million in Q2 2026, Q2 2026 and Q1 2026
Nigeria's debt service is projected to rise to 71.7% of federal government revenue by 2030, above the 50% threshold recommended by the Debt Management Office (DMO), according to the office's 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis released on November 9, Nairametrics reported. In the baseline, the ratio falls to 44.9% in 2025 from 60.6% in 2024, then rises to 51% in 2026.
Analysis: The baseline crosses the DMO's own threshold this year and stays above it through 2030, even as public debt falls from 53.7% of GDP in 2024 to 27.3%, according to the analysis. That suggests revenue, not the size of the debt, is the main constraint: more of each naira collected goes to interest and repayments. If the naira weakened 30%, real GDP fell 2% and revenue fell 2.5%, the ratio would reach 97.3% in 2030 under the shock scenario. Non-residents also held 49% of public debt, above a 45% threshold. The DMO has not dated its next quarterly debt figures, for September 30.
Source: Debt Management Office Nigeria, DMO 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis, as reported by Nairametrics, November 9, 2026, 2030 (projection) and Threshold (2024 DSA) and 2024 and 2025 (projection) and 2026 (projection) and 2030 (shock scenario) and 2024 DSA (latest stated)
Nigeria collected 33tn naira (€21.8bn) in government revenue from January to October 2026, helped by electronic invoicing and other digital systems, Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said in a convocation lecture at the University of Uyo on November 5, according to a statement from his spokesperson reported by Nairametrics. The Sun attributed the total to the federal government.
Analysis: The figure cannot yet be verified. The statement quoted by Nairametrics says only government revenue, not whether that means the federal government, the federation account shared with states or all tiers. It gives no earlier total to support the minister's description of a record. If it is federal revenue, as The Sun reported, it would equal 96% of the 34.33tn naira (€22.7bn) projected for all of 2026 when the budget was signed, by our calculation. The borrowing request sent to the Senate a day earlier still cites a deficit of about 31.4tn naira (€20.8bn). The Budget Office's third-quarter implementation report, which would settle the scope, was not found in our search.
Source: Federal Ministry of Finance, Finance ministry statement on the minister's University of Uyo lecture, November 5, 2026, as reported by Nairametrics, January-October 2026; Nairametrics, Nairametrics report on the signing of the 2026 budget (April 17, 2026), 2026; Nairametrics, President Tinubu's letter to the Senate, as reported by Nairametrics (November 4, 2026), 2026
Olam Agri plans to build a third animal feed plant in Nigeria, producing poultry and fish feed, expand its semolina capacity and add 850 trucks to its fleet in the country, the agricultural trader said on November 4, as reported by Nairametrics. The projects form part of about $400mn it intends to invest in African food processing through 2028.
Analysis: The new plan is about three and a half times the roughly $115mn Olam Agri says it has invested in West African processing since 2024, by our calculation. At full capacity, the feed mills planned for Nigeria, Cameroon and Ivory Coast are expected to buy more than 500,000 metric tons of corn and soybeans a year from over 130,000 smallholders. That would add a large buyer to local grain markets. The company did not say how much of the $400mn goes to Nigeria or when the Nigerian plant will open. Its 300,000-ton Cameroon poultry feed plant is due in early 2028.
Source: Olam Agri, Olam Agri statement, November 4, 2026, as reported by Nairametrics, 2026-2028 and 2024-2026 and At full capacity
Nigeria has about 106 compressed natural gas (CNG) refueling stations in operation, with another 170 under development or awaiting licenses, Ismaeel Ahmed, head of the Presidential Initiative on CNG and Electric Vehicles, said on November 6, as reported by Nairametrics. Private investment in the program has reached $2.6bn, he said.
Analysis: Investment has risen by about $600mn since December 2025, when Ahmed put it at about $2bn, by our calculation. That is just over half the $5bn targeted for 2027. The station count is further behind. Even if all 170 pending sites open, the network would reach about 276 stations, roughly 14% of the 2,000 to 2,500 outlets targeted for 2027. Ahmed said the program had cut transport costs by about 30% to 40%. He also said the president had ordered about 500 more refueling units, for which no completion date has been given.
Source: Pi-CNG & EV, Remarks by Pi-CNG chairman Ismaeel Ahmed, November 6, 2026, as reported by Nairametrics, November 2026; Pi-CNG & EV, Remarks by Pi-CNG chairman, as reported by NAN (December 6, 2025), December 2025 and 2027
Chart of the week
Nigeria crude oil and condensate output, barrels per day, monthly average, NUPRC, January–September 2026
1,627,460
1,483,950
1,546,090
1,663,410
1,700,800
1,735,400
1,670,890
1,677,777
1,717,030
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
Average daily output of crude oil plus condensate in each month, as published by the upstream regulator NUPRC. January to July are provisional figures from the regulator's own table, while August and September come from its monthly statements as reported by Nairametrics and Blueprint. September's output was 1.72mn barrels a day, and state oil company NNPC put the same month at 1.70mn in its own monthly report.. Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), NUPRC, 2026: Daily average crude oil and condensate production - thousand barrels per day (provisional), January to July file, January 2026 and February 2026 and March 2026 and April 2026 and May 2026 and June 2026 and July 2026; Nairametrics, NUPRC August 2026 production statement (Head of Media Eniola Akinkuotu), as reported by Nairametrics, August 2026; Various, NUPRC September 2026 production statement, as reported by Blueprint Newspapers ("Nigeria met OPEC daily peak of 1.84mbd in September 2026 - NUPRC"), September 2026.
Tender of the week
330/132kV substations at Kalgo, Daura and Jogana plus line bays (Northern Corridor, lots 4 and 5)
Buyer
Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), project implementation unit
Scope
Design, supply, installation and commissioning of substations: lot 4, a new 150MVA 330/132/33kV substation at Kalgo with eight 330kV line bays and reactors, plus line-bay extensions at Kainji, Shiroro and Kaduna (Mando); lot 5, new 2x150MVA 330/132/33kV substations at Daura and Jogana (Kano) and two line bays with busbar reactors at Katsina. International competitive bidding, single stage. Lot 6 (Sokoto and other substations) is not part of this tender.
Value
Not published
Funding
Loan from the French Development Agency (AFD), no. CNG-1036, and a European Union grant (Northern Corridor Transmission Project)
Closes
Thursday, January 14, 2027
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In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Who lends Nigeria 29.2tn NGN for its 2026 budget
15 stories with workings, from customs revenue, debt service, government revenue and borrowing to Treasury bills, business activity, oil and gas, telecoms, stablecoin rules and air travel
Five key figures, from inflation and the policy rate to the naira, oil output and reserves, the tender of the week and every open tender in our records, with deadlines
