Banks in Guinea-Bissau held 39.4bn FCFA (€60mn) in reserves at the regional central bank BCEAO in the month to September 15, 4.1 times the 9.6bn FCFA (€15mn) required, according to BCEAO data published on November 6. Their excess reserves were 29.8bn FCFA (€45mn). In the month to August 15, the excess reached 31.8bn FCFA (€48mn), double the 15.8bn FCFA (€24mn) of a year earlier. Gross loans fell 1.3% in September to 240.9bn FCFA (€367mn).
Analysis: Some of the increase appears seasonal. Excess reserves also rose in mid-2025, during the cashew export season, but to half this year's level. Guinea-Bissau's banks are also more liquid than the regional norm: across the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), reserves held were 3.5 times the requirement, by our calculation. The surplus equals about 12% of banks' loan book. Meanwhile, loans have fallen 4.9% since July and one loan in five is non-performing. That pattern is consistent with banks keeping cash rather than lending, though the BCEAO gives no reason. Its October bulletin is expected in early December. No date has been published.
Source: BCEAO, BCEAO, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques, septembre 2026 (posted November 6, 2026), August 16 - September 15, 2026 and July 16 - August 15, 2025 and May 16 - June 15, 2026 and September 2026; BCEAO, BCEAO, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques, août 2026 (posted October 7, 2026), August 2026
Non-performing loans at banks and financial institutions in Guinea-Bissau reached 21.0% of gross loans in September, up from 20.6% in August and 19.2% a year earlier, the regional central bank BCEAO said in its monthly statistical bulletin published on November 6. They totaled 50.6bn FCFA (€77mn). The ratio across the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) was 10.3%.
Analysis: The ratio rose mainly because lending shrank: gross loans fell 1.3% in September to 240.9bn FCFA (€367mn). Meanwhile, bad loans grew 0.5%, by our calculation. Over a year, however, bad loans rose 7.4% as loans fell 1.7%. The deterioration is therefore not only the effect of a smaller loan book. Banks have raised provisions to cover 56.1% of bad loans, from 48.9% a year earlier. That cushions future write-offs but leaves 22.2bn FCFA (€34mn) uncovered. Only Niger, at 23.6%, has a higher rate in the union. The October bulletin is expected in early December. No date has been published.
Source: BCEAO, BCEAO, Bulletin mensuel des statistiques, septembre 2026 (posted November 6, 2026), September 2026
Guinea-Bissau's cashew export volumes in the 2026 campaign exceeded 2025 levels by nearly 12%, beating expectations, the IMF said on November 3 at the end of its final program review mission. Higher-than-expected cashew revenue is helping hold the fiscal deficit at 4.2% of GDP this year, the Fund said. Cashew nuts made up about 90% of the country's goods exports by value in 2025, IMF data show.
Analysis: Nearly 12% above the IMF's 211,000-ton figure for 2025 points to shipments of up to about 236,000 tons, by our calculation, roughly 21,000 tons more than the Fund projected in June. The export levy is charged per ton on a fixed $1,050 reference price, so extra volume feeds directly into the Treasury receipts the IMF credits for the lower deficit. Exporters and processors still lack an official end-of-campaign tally. The commerce ministry last put exports at about 230,000 tons on September 22 and has not published a final figure.
Source: International Monetary Fund, IMF Press Release No. 26/348, November 3, 2026 (read in the Mirage News republication), 2026 campaign and 2026 (projection); 2023; World Bank, World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2026: Guinea-Bissau, January-August 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, 2026; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – Lei do Orçamento, 2026; Agence Ecofin, Agence Ecofin, 'Guinea-Bissau to Cut Budget Deficit to 4.2% of GDP in 2026, IMF Says', November 5, 2026, 2026
The African Development Bank (AfDB) intends to extend its cooperation with Guinea-Bissau by two years to 2028, Economy Minister Mamadu Mudjetaba Djaló said, according to state news agency ANG on November 3. The bank has begun reviewing its 2022–2026 strategy for the country, which ends in December, he said. The bank's regional director, Lamin G. Barrow, put its portfolio at about $235mn for 14 ongoing projects. The minister described the same 14 national and regional projects as worth more than $245mn.
Analysis: The extension would set the bank's priorities for 2027 and 2028. The regional director named energy links through the Gambia River basin body OMVG, the Tanaf road corridor to Senegal, roads to Guinea and cashew processing. Processing remains small: a 25,000-ton plant that the minister said should open in 2028 would handle about 11% of this year's 230,000 tons of exports, by our calculation. The West African Development Bank put local processing at about 10% of the crop in March. ANG did not say who will finance the plant. The AfDB has not published a date for approving a new or extended strategy.
Source: Agência de Notícias da Guiné (state news agency, Bissau), Agência de Notícias da Guiné (ANG), 'BAD avalia execução de projetos na Guiné-Bissau e prepara nova estratégia de cooperação', November 3, 2026, November 2026; Agência de Notícias da Guiné (state news agency, Bissau), Agência de Notícias da Guiné (ANG), November 3, 2026, 2022-2026; extension to 2028 and 2028 (planned); Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep; Banque Ouest Africaine de Développement, BOAD press release, 'Filière cajou : La Guinée Bissau et la BOAD lancent la SOCA GB SA pour accroître la valeur ajoutée locale', Bissau, 13 March 2026, March 2026 (current); 2030 (target)
Guinea-Bissau has connected more than 20,788 households to electricity in 90 localities under the ECOWAS Regional Electricity Access Project, reaching about 145,000 people, the ECOWAS Commission said on November 3 after the project's final steering committee meeting in Abuja. The World Bank finances the $225mn project, which covers Guinea-Bissau, The Gambia and Mali and closes on December 31, 2026.
Analysis: Guinea-Bissau accounted for 90 of the project's 490 localities and about 145,000 of the nearly 500,000 people reached. That is roughly 6% of its population, by our calculation. The connections matter because only about 31% of the population had electricity in 2025, the energy minister said in October. He projected close to 40% in 2026 on projects backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank. ECOWAS did not say how the $225mn was split among the three countries. The project closes on December 31, and it remains unclear whether the extension of at least 30 months that Mali requested would cover Guinea-Bissau.
Source: ECOWAS Commission, ECOWAS Commission press release, November 3, 2026, Project to November 2026 and Project total; Agência de Notícias da Guiné (state news agency, Bissau), ANG (via Inforpress), 'Cabo Verde/Fórum de Investimento: Cabo Verde e Guiné-Bissau defendem transição energética e acesso universal', October 28, 2026, 2025
Chart of the week
Guinea-Bissau raw cashew nut exports, thousand metric tons a year, IMF data, 2021–2025
234
183
193
167
211
20212022202320242025
Raw cashew nuts exported each year, from the IMF country reports of September 2024 (2021 and 2022) and June 2026 (2023 to 2025). The latest value, 211,000 tons in 2025, is preliminary. The IMF said on November 3 that 2026 volumes exceeded those of 2025 by nearly 12%, and no final 2026 figure has been published.. Source: International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 24/295, sixth review under the ECF, 2021 and 2022; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, eleventh review under the ECF, 2023 and 2024; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025.
In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Guinea-Bissau targets a 2.8% deficit as its IMF program ends
10 stories with workings, from banks and bad loans, the 2027 budget and the IMF to cashew exports, development lending, power connections, regional reforms, governance and poverty
Four key figures, from inflation and bond yields to cashew volumes and farm prices, and every open tender in our records
Euro equivalents use the fixed parity of 655.957 FCFA per euro. Every figure comes from the official source named under it. Spotted an error? Write to info@alamareport.com; corrections run in the next issue.
