Guinea-Bissau's cashew export volumes in the 2026 campaign exceeded 2025 levels by nearly 12%, beating expectations, the IMF said on November 3 at the end of its final program review mission. Higher-than-expected cashew revenue is helping hold the fiscal deficit at 4.2% of GDP this year, the Fund said. Cashew nuts made up about 90% of the country's goods exports by value in 2025, IMF data show.
Analysis: Nearly 12% above the IMF's 211,000-ton figure for 2025 points to shipments of up to about 236,000 tons, by our calculation, roughly 21,000 tons more than the Fund projected in June. The export levy is charged per ton on a fixed $1,050 reference price, so extra volume feeds directly into the Treasury receipts the IMF credits for the lower deficit. Exporters and processors still lack an official end-of-campaign tally. The commerce ministry last put exports at about 230,000 tons on September 22 and has not published a final figure.
Source: International Monetary Fund, IMF Press Release No. 26/348, November 3, 2026 (read in the Mirage News republication), 2026 campaign and 2026 (projection); 2023; World Bank, World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2026: Guinea-Bissau, January-August 2026; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, 2025; International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 26/140, Eleventh Review under the ECF arrangement, 2026; Direction générale du Trésor, Service économique régional d'Abidjan / SE Dakar, DG Trésor, Brèves économiques Afrique de l'Ouest n°644 (25 Sep 2026), citing Ministério do Comércio e Indústria, 2026 campaign to 22 Sep; Ministério das Finanças da Guiné-Bissau, Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2026 – Lei do Orçamento, 2026; Agence Ecofin, Agence Ecofin, 'Guinea-Bissau to Cut Budget Deficit to 4.2% of GDP in 2026, IMF Says', November 5, 2026, 2026