Senegal posted a goods trade deficit of 29.5bn FCFA (€45mn) in September, after a 160bn FCFA (€244mn) surplus in August, according to statistics agency ANSD. Exports fell 20.4% from the previous month to 566bn FCFA (€863mn). Meanwhile, imports rose 8.1% to 595.6bn FCFA (€908mn). The balance for the first nine months of 2026 was a surplus of 56bn FCFA (€85mn), compared with a deficit of 1,127bn FCFA (€1.72bn) a year earlier, ANSD said.
Analysis: Crude oil drove most of the trade-balance reversal. Crude exports fell to 123.3bn FCFA (€188mn) from 206.7bn FCFA (€315mn) in August. Meanwhile, crude purchases resumed at 53bn FCFA (€81mn) after almost none the month before. Oil shipments vary monthly, so a single month reveals little about the trend. Over the first nine months, exports rose 24.5% and imports fell 3.4% from a year earlier, by our calculation. The published January–August surplus of 93bn FCFA (€142mn) plus September's deficit gives 63.5bn, not the 56bn now reported, suggesting that ANSD revised earlier months. October figures, expected in early December, should show whether the annual surplus holds.
Source: ANSD, ANSD monthly foreign trade note, September 2026, as reported by Sika Finance (November 5, 2026), September 2026 and January–September 2026 and January–September 2025; ANSD, ANSD monthly foreign trade note, September 2026, as reported by APS (via allAfrica, November 6, 2026), September 2026; ANSD, ANSD monthly foreign trade bulletin, August 2026 (via Sikafinance, 12 Oct 2026), August 2026 and January–August 2026; ANSD, ANSD monthly foreign trade note, September 2026, as reported by APS (via allAfrica, November 6, 2026) and Sika Finance, September 2026
Senegal's government projects growth of 1.5% in 2027, after an estimated 2.7% in 2026 and 6.75% in 2025, Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told the National Assembly's finance committee in his presentation of the 2027 budget bill. Growth outside oil and gas was only 2.2% in 2025, he said.
Analysis: Under the government's projections, Senegal would grow far more slowly than its neighbors. The IMF's lowest 2026 forecast for any other member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is 4.4%, for Burkina Faso. Growth outside oil and gas was already weak in 2025, at 2.2%. Meanwhile, the minister said oil and gas fields drove the 6.75% total. The 2027 bill also cuts the deficit by 383.5bn FCFA (€585mn) to 1,351.7bn FCFA (€2.06bn), by our calculation. Such a squeeze typically weighs on demand. The National Assembly must vote on the bill by about December 11.
Source: Ministry of Finance and Budget, Allocution du ministre de l'Économie, des Finances et du Plan devant la Commission des finances et du contrôle budgétaire, projet de loi de finances initiale 2027 (PLFI 2027), published on vie-publique.sn on November 7, 2026, 2027 (projection) and 2026 (estimate) and 2025 and 2027 (budget bill); Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances rectificative (PLFR) 2026, exposé des motifs, 2026; Press reports, Reuters, 'IMF predicts lower growth, bigger current account deficit for debt-laden Senegal', April 14, 2026 (via MarketScreener), 2026 (April 2026 forecast); IMF, IMF, World Economic Outlook (October 2026) database, DataMapper API (indicator metadata: source 'World Economic Outlook (October 2026)', last modified 2026-10-08), 2026 and 2025
Senegal's 2027 budget bill cuts the primary deficit, which excludes interest, to 47.7bn FCFA (€72.7mn), or 0.2% of GDP, Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told the National Assembly's finance committee. That compares with 450bn FCFA (€686mn) in the rejected amended 2026 budget. The overall deficit falls to 1,351.7bn FCFA (€2.06bn), or 4.7% of GDP, from 1,735.2bn FCFA (€2.65bn) in the amended 2026 budget, he said.
Analysis: Interest would account for 96% of the 2027 deficit, or 1,304bn FCFA (€1.99bn) of 1,351.7bn FCFA, by our calculation. The share was 74% in the amended 2026 budget. Revenue would therefore cover almost all spending except interest, and nearly all net new borrowing would go to paying lenders. The minister put the primary deficit excluding oil and gas at 1.5% of GDP. This suggests net hydrocarbon revenue of about 1.3% of GDP keeps the primary budget close to balance, by our calculation. The finance committee rejected the bill's revenue and debt sections on November 7, and the National Assembly must vote on the bill by about December 11.
Source: Ministry of Finance and Budget, Allocution du ministre de l'Économie, des Finances et du Plan devant la Commission des finances et du contrôle budgétaire, projet de loi de finances initiale 2027 (PLFI 2027), published on vie-publique.sn on November 7, 2026, 2027 (budget bill) and 2026 (amended budget, rejected) and 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances rectificative (PLFR) 2026, exposé des motifs, 2026; Ministry of Finance and Budget, Projet de loi de finances initiale 2027, as reported by Le Soleil, 2027 (draft budget) and 2026 (amended budget, rejected)
Senegal's government will maintain an exceptional envelope of 10bn FCFA (€15.2mn) for its agricultural research institute ISRA to restore its finances, the prime minister's office said after an interministerial meeting on November 6. A finance ministry representative put the institute's tax debt at 4.7bn FCFA (€7.2mn) and its cumulative subsidy shortfall at 3.4bn FCFA (€5.2mn), state news agency APS reported.
Analysis: The two amounts named by the finance ministry total 8.1bn FCFA (€12.3mn), or 81% of the envelope, by our calculation. The prime minister's office said the money would also help settle social and energy debts, whose size was not published. That suggests the 10bn FCFA mainly repairs the balance sheet rather than adding research capacity. However, officials cited a shortage of specialist plant breeders for potatoes, maize and onions, crops the government aims to produce locally. Management put the institute's land at about 8,000 hectares under pressure, and a land audit is planned. The prime minister asked for deadlines and monitoring. However, no dates have been published.
Source: Prime Minister's office (Primature) and Ministry of Finance, Primature, interministerial meeting on ISRA, November 6, 2026, 2026; Prime Minister's office (Primature) and Ministry of Finance, SenePlus report of the November 6 interministerial meeting, November 2026
Senegal lifted its suspension of potato imports from November 4, after a survey of wholesalers on October 29 found that local supply could no longer meet demand, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce said in a circular dated November 5, state daily Le Soleil reported. Import authorizations are subject to quotas and expire on December 20. Local potatoes had supplied the market alone since January 16.
Analysis: The 46-day window is about a third of the 122 days granted to onion importers when that suspension ended in August, by our calculation. This leaves traders little time to contract, ship and clear cargoes before December 20. The ministry has not published the quota volume, so it remains unclear how much supply the permits will bring. The suspension lasted 292 days, and the ministry said prices stayed relatively stable over the period. Importers now await a decision on what applies after December 20, for which no date has been published.
Source: Ministry of Industry and Commerce and ARM, Ministry of Industry and Commerce circular of November 5, 2026, as reported by Le Soleil, 2026; Ministry of Industry and Commerce and ARM, Le Soleil, November 2026, 2026; Ministry of Industry and Commerce and ARM, Ministry of Industry and Commerce press release on lifting the onion import freeze, 31 Aug 2026 (via Dakaractu), 2026; Ministry of Industry and Commerce and ARM, Ministry of Industry and Commerce decision on onion imports, 31 Aug 2026 (via Senego, 31 Aug 2026), 2026
Value of goods exported each month, as first published by statistics agency ANSD in its monthly trade bulletins. Exports reached 711.1bn FCFA (€1.08bn) in August and fell to 566bn FCFA (€863mn) in September, as crude oil exports dropped to 123.3bn FCFA (€188mn) from 206.7bn FCFA (€315mn). Oil cargoes vary from month to month, and any later revisions by ANSD are not shown.. Source: ANSD, Monthly trade bulletin (via Capmad, 12 Jul 2026), April 2026 and May 2026; ANSD, Monthly trade bulletin (via APA, 7 Aug 2026), June 2026; ANSD, Monthly trade bulletin (via Le Soleil, 10 Sep 2026), July 2026; ANSD, ANSD monthly foreign trade bulletin, August 2026 (via Sikafinance, 12 Oct 2026), August 2026; ANSD, ANSD monthly foreign trade note, September 2026, as reported by Sika Finance (November 5, 2026), September 2026.
Tender of the week
Construction and rehabilitation of schools in Dakar, Thiès and Kaolack (6 lots)
Buyer
ADM
Scope
Construction and rehabilitation of lycées and middle schools (CEM) in six lots, each awarded separately; open tender (appel d’offres ouvert) by the Municipal Development Agency (ADM) under a school infrastructure program financed by an AFD loan.
Value
Not published
Funding
AFD loan
Closes
Monday, December 7, 2026
Alama Pro members get the link to the official notice for this and every other tender.
In Alama Pro this week
Deep dive: Who lends to Senegal while the IMF decides
15 stories with workings, from trade, the 2027 budget and debt, farming, energy, mining, cement and building materials, tourism and banks
Seven key figures, from Sangomar oil exports to inflation, and every open tender in our records
Euro equivalents use the fixed parity of 655.957 FCFA per euro. Every figure comes from the official source named under it. Spotted an error? Write to info@alamareport.com; corrections run in the next issue.
