Nigeria's debt service is projected to rise to 71.7% of federal government revenue by 2030, above the 50% threshold recommended by the Debt Management Office (DMO), according to the office's 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis released on November 9, Nairametrics reported. In the baseline, the ratio falls to 44.9% in 2025 from 60.6% in 2024, then rises to 51% in 2026.
Analysis: The baseline crosses the DMO's own threshold this year and stays above it through 2030, even as public debt falls from 53.7% of GDP in 2024 to 27.3%, according to the analysis. That suggests revenue, not the size of the debt, is the main constraint: more of each naira collected goes to interest and repayments. If the naira weakened 30%, real GDP fell 2% and revenue fell 2.5%, the ratio would reach 97.3% in 2030 under the shock scenario. Non-residents also held 49% of public debt, above a 45% threshold. The DMO has not dated its next quarterly debt figures, for September 30.
Source: Debt Management Office Nigeria, DMO 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis, as reported by Nairametrics, November 9, 2026, 2030 (projection) and Threshold (2024 DSA) and 2024 and 2025 (projection) and 2026 (projection) and 2030 (shock scenario) and 2024 DSA (latest stated)