Senegal's private external creditors could lose 35% to 65% in the planned debt restructuring, against 10% to 20% previously, Moody's said on October 29 as it cut the country's foreign-currency ratings to Ca from Caa2, its fifth consecutive downgrade, Agence Ecofin reported. The rating on FCFA-denominated debt stays at Caa2, while the outlook moved to stable from negative, the agency said.
Analysis: The higher loss estimate follows Senegal's decision to seek restructuring under the G20 Common Framework while excluding FCFA debt, which Moody's puts at roughly a third of central government debt totaling 97% of GDP. Exempting regional creditors would concentrate losses on eurobond investors and other external lenders. Senegal's five eurobonds were already trading near half their face value in early October. Moody's also warned that domestic debt remains vulnerable to a liquidity squeeze and parliamentary resistance could delay a roughly $2.2bn IMF program agreed at staff level in September. The government aims to reach creditor agreements by year-end.
Source: Moody's Ratings, Agence Ecofin, « Sénégal : Moody’s anticipe des pertes de 35 à 65 % pour les créanciers extérieurs », October 30, 2026, 29 Oct 2026 and before 29 Oct 2026 and 2025 (latest assessed) and early October 2026 and September 2026