Senegal puts debt at 105% of GDP after revising economic figures
The week in one number: 105.3%: Senegal's debt of central government and public enterprises at end-2025 as a share of GDP, after the government revised its GDP numbers, in figures presented to external creditors on October 6.
Five stories
1 · Macro & prices
105%
Senegal puts debt at 105% of GDP after revising economic figures
Senegal's central government and public enterprise debt stood at 27.13tn FCFA (€41bn) at the end of 2025, equivalent to 105.3% of revised GDP of 25.77tn FCFA (€39bn), according to figures presented at an October 6 meeting with external creditors and reported by Seneweb. External debt accounted for 18.39tn FCFA (€28bn), or 71.4% of GDP. A staff-level agreement reached with the International Monetary Fund on September 1 for a $2.2bn Extended Credit Facility remains subject to approval by the IMF's Executive Board.
Analysis: Before the upward revision to GDP, estimated at around 20%, Senegal's debt burden would have stood at 124%–126% of economic output. The revision reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio without changing the amount owed. External creditors account for roughly two-thirds of total debt, with the remaining 8.74tn FCFA (€13bn) not necessarily all denominated in CFA francs. Agreements in principle with creditors could be reached in December, according to a source cited by Le Soleil, while the IMF has yet to set a date for its Executive Board to consider the proposed lending program.
Source: Ministry of Finance and Budget, presentation to external creditors, 6 Oct 2026 (via Seneweb); IMF press release 26/282, 1 Sep 2026
2 · Trade
10%
Wheat leads 10% annual rise in world prices for WAEMU food imports
World prices for key food imports into the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) rose 10.0% in CFA franc terms in the year to July 2026, the regional central bank BCEAO said in its August economic report. Wheat prices climbed 21.7%, vegetable oils rose 12.4% and rice gained 10.4%, while milk and sugar prices fell 7.8% and 7.5%, respectively.
Analysis: The increase accelerated in July, with the index rising 4.7% from the previous month, driven largely by higher wheat and rice prices. In Senegal, however, food and beverage prices rose just 0.9% year on year in September, suggesting that higher global costs have yet to fully reach consumers. Flour millers and rice importers are typically the first to face rising import costs. Consumer price data for October, expected from Senegal’s statistics agency ANSD around November 10, could provide a clearer picture of whether those increases are being passed on to shoppers.
Source: BCEAO, monthly economic note for the UEMOA, August 2026 edition (July 2026 data); ANSD consumer price index, September 2026
3 · Agriculture & fertilizer
13,000 t
Senegal River valley has 13,000 tons of rice left to sell, minister says
About 13,000 metric tons of rice remain unsold in the Senegal River valley, Agriculture Minister Cheikhou Oumar Ba said on October 8, according to state news agency APS. The valley agency SAED had estimated white-rice stocks at 37,000 tons in July, when the government temporarily suspended rice import declarations for one month to encourage purchases of locally produced grain. At a July 8 meeting, the Commerce Ministry allocated the available stocks among importers at a fixed purchase price of 280 FCFA (€0.43) per kilogram, broadcaster RTS reported.
Analysis: If the figures refer to the same stocks, around two-thirds of the rice available in July has since been sold, leaving an estimated 3.6bn FCFA (€5.5mn) worth of grain in the valley at the agreed purchase price. The measures were aimed at clearing domestic stocks while restricting new import orders. The Commerce Ministry has yet to clarify whether the import declaration suspension was extended beyond its initial one-month period, leaving importers uncertain about purchasing arrangements for the final quarter of 2026.
Source: Agriculture Minister’s statement (via APS, 8 Oct 2026); Ministry of Industry and Commerce meeting on local rice, 8 Jul 2026 (via RTS)
4 · Agriculture & fertilizer
227 days
Senegal reopens onion imports under quotas after 227-day suspension
Senegal resumed onion imports on August 31, ending a 227-day suspension introduced on January 16 to help local growers sell their harvest, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce said. Imports are now subject to quotas administered by market regulator ARM, with authorizations valid until December 31, according to Senego. The regulator also set a maximum price of 9,000 FCFA (€14) for a 25-kilogram sack of onions in July, equivalent to 360 FCFA (€0.55) per kilogram.
Analysis: The new import window runs for 122 days, giving traders until the end of December to arrange shipments, clear customs and sell their produce within the regulated price ceiling. By October 31, half of that period will have elapsed, potentially tightening delivery schedules for importers while domestic growers weigh when to release stored onions onto the market. ARM has yet to publish the volumes covered by the import quotas, leaving traders uncertain about how much they can bring into the country before the authorizations expire on December 31.
Source: Ministry of Industry and Commerce, 31 Aug 2026 (via Dakaractu and Senego); ARM ceiling price, 27 Jul 2026 (via Senego)
5 · Energy, oil & gas
−23%
Senegal's Sangomar oil output forecast points to 23% decline in second half
Senegal's Sangomar oilfield produced 17.9mn barrels in the first half of 2026, putting it on course to exceed an initial annual production forecast of 28.1mn barrels. The energy ministry subsequently raised its full-year target to 31.6mn barrels, according to a July 7 report by Dabafinance. That would still be below the roughly 36.2mn barrels produced in 2025. Operator Woodside reported average production of 99,000 barrels per day in the first half, while government figures showed exports of 2.97mn barrels in August and 2.94mn in September.
Analysis: The revised annual forecast implies production of around 13.7mn barrels in the second half, or 2.3mn barrels a month, approximately 23% below first-half levels. However, exports remained close to 3mn barrels in both August and September, suggesting that production may be running ahead of the ministry's forecast. A slowdown later in the year could reduce export volumes and government revenues, while sustained output would point to a higher annual total. Woodside's third-quarter production report, due on October 20, should provide a clearer picture of the field's performance between July and September.
Source: Woodside Energy, Half-Year Report 2026; Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, statements and monthly hydrocarbons figures (via Dabafinance, SenePlus, APA and Le Soleil)
Chart of the week
Consumer price inflation, % year on year, March–September 2026
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.4
0.3
1.2
1.0
MarAprMayJunJulAugSep
Inflation in Senegal, % year on year. Source: ANSD, consumer price index monthly notes, March to September 2026 (via the press).
Tender of the week
Construction and rehabilitation of schools in Dakar, Thiès and Kaolack (6 lots)
Buyer
ADM
Scope
Construction and rehabilitation of lycées and middle schools (CEM) in six lots, each awarded separately; open tender (appel d’offres ouvert) by the Municipal Development Agency (ADM) under a school infrastructure program financed by an AFD loan.
Euro equivalents use the fixed parity of 655.957 FCFA per euro. Every figure comes from the official source named under it. Spotted an error? Write to info@alamareport.com; corrections run in the next issue.
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